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At the 54 game mark ...

Frayed Knot
Jun 05 2005 08:40 PM

OK, since the earlier thread checking where teams were at various points in the season was lost to the E-ZDisaster, I'll have to pick up here - at the 1/3 point of the season.

As was the case before, all records shown are where the teams were at the completion of their 54th game.
But also, in addition to being a good spot to check up on how things are going, the 1/3 point in the season is also the first best time to check on how individual players are going and where their seasons will wind up if they continue "at this rate".
So after the teams' current records are selected individual stats shown as projections for the full year.



NL East

Braves: 29-25
Rafael Furcal - 492 outs (684 plate app - .280 OBA)

Nationals: 28-26
Brad Wilkerson - 171 Ks

NYM: 28-26
Jose Reyes - 24 BBs

Marlins: 28-26
Dontrelle Willis - 27-6, 1.85 ERA

Phillies: 27-27
Jim Thome - 6 HRs



NL Central

Cardinals: 35-19
Albert Pujols - 84 XBH

Cubs: 29-25
Derrick Lee - 380/467/710; 51 HRs, 153 RBIs

Brewers: 26-28
Russel Branyan - 291 ABs, 117 Ks

Pirates: 25-29
Ty Wigginton - 15 HRs, .204/.261.398

Reds: 21-33
Sean Casey - 36 GiDPs (One-season record = 36 by Jim Rice)

Astros: 20-34
Craig Biggio - 18 HBPs (his 12th will break Don Baylor's career record of 267)




NL West

Padres: 33-21
Sean Burroughs - 429 ABs, 6 extra-base hits

Diamondbacks: 30-24
Russ Ortiz - 108 BBs, 78 Ks

Dodgers: 27-27
Jason Phillips - 444 ABs, 9 HRs, 81 RBIs

Giants: 24-30
Moises Alou - 414 ABs, 21 Ks

Rockies: 18-36
Todd Helton - 15 HRs, .257 BA







AL East

Orioles: 32-22
Brian Roberts: 612 ABs / 33 HRs / 393 TBs (prior career totals - 1,502 / 12 / 541)

Red Sox: 30-24
Keith Foulke - 78 IPs / 90 H / 30 BBs / 54 Ks / 36Svs / 6 Blown Svs

Blue Jays: 28-26
Roy Halladay - 255 IPs (most in MLB)

NYY: 27-27
Carl Pavano - 279 Hits allowed (most in MLB)
Team Clean-up slot - 6 HRs

Devil Rays: 19-35
Scott Kazmir: 191 IP; 180 H; 102 BBs; 141 Ks




AL Central

White Sox: 36-18
Scott Posednik - 84 steals / 27 caught stealing

Twins: 32-22
Brad Radke - 246 IPs, 150 Ks, 9 BBs

Tigers: 26-28
Vance Wilson - 108 ABs, .111/.220/.111

Indians: 25-29
Aaron Boone - 486 ABs, 78 Hits (.160/.211/.259)

Royals: 17-37
Joe McEwing - 177 ABs / 3 extra-base hits / 0 BBs



AL West

Angels: 31-23
Francisco Rodriguez - 51 IPs / 30 H / 15 BBs / 72 Ks / 30 Saves / 0 Blown

Rangers: 31-23
David Delucci - 123 walks

Mariners: 23-31
Ichiro - 210 Hits

A's: 21-33
Eric Chavez - 15 HRs / .230 BA / .288 OBA

Swan Swan H
Jun 05 2005 09:46 PM

After the games of June 5 the Yankees are sx games out of first place - more games out of first than every team in the NL East combined.

Frayed Knot
Jun 06 2005 08:16 AM
Edited 5 time(s), most recently on Jun 06 2005 08:59 AM

So let's see how well HTML charts work here ...


10 Games25 Games40 Games54 Games
ATL6 - 415 - 1023 - 1729 - 25
WASH6 - 413 - 1222 - 1828 - 26
NYM5 - 512 - 1321 - 1928 - 26
FLA5 - 515 - 1024 - 1628 - 26
PHIL4 - 611 - 1418 - 2227 - 27
StL6 - 415 - 1025 - 1535 - 19
CHIC4 - 612 - 1318 - 2229 - 25
MILW5 - 512 - 1319 - 2126 - 28
PITT4 - 69 - 1619 - 2125 - 29
CINC5 - 510 - 1514 - 2621 - 33
HOU5 - 511 - 1415 - 2520 - 34
SD5 - 511 - 1424 - 1633 - 21
ARZ6 - 415 - 1023 - 1730 - 24
LAD8 - 216 - 922 - 1827 - 27
SF5 - 514 - 1119 - 2124 - 30
COL2 - 86 - 1912 - 2818 - 36

Frayed Knot
Jun 06 2005 08:38 AM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jun 06 2005 08:41 AM



10 Games25 Games40 Games54 Games
BALT5 - 517 - 826 - 1432 - 22
BOST5 - 513 - 1223 - 1730 - 24
TOR7 - 313 - 1221 - 1928 - 26
NYY4 - 610 - 1521 - 1927 - 27
TB4 - 68 - 1714 - 2619 - 35
CHIW7 - 318 - 728 - 1236 - 18
MINN7 - 315 - 1024 - 1632 - 22
DET3 - 712 - 1319 - 2126 - 28
CLEV4 - 610 - 1517 - 2325 - 29
KC4 - 67 - 1811 - 2917 - 37
LAA6 - 414 - 1123 - 1731 - 23
TEX4 - 612 - 1321 - 1931 - 23
SEA5 - 512 - 1316 - 2423 - 31
OAK4 - 613 - 1216 - 2421 - 33

TheOldMole
Jun 06 2005 08:39 AM

Consistent, aren't we?

Edgy DC
Jun 06 2005 08:46 AM

I edited LF's post to close the table.

Frayed Knot
Jun 06 2005 08:58 AM

So why the hell didn't you correct any of my math mistakes while you were in there ya lazy bum?!?

(I think I got them all at this point)

Edgy DC
Jun 06 2005 09:08 AM

I have to fix coding errors because they can kerflutz everything else on the page, but it's good policy not to touch peeps content.

Only time I think I ever did that was when that stray ESPN rolodex was published, which seemed like violation of our usage agreement. ezboard did occasionally check on that sort of thing.

Frayed Knot
Jul 06 2005 08:32 AM

We've hit the halfway point.
Below shows where each team was as they hit the 81 game point, how many wins that projects to over a full season, and how that projection compares to how many they won last season.




TEAM81 Game Rec. Proj. Wins# Wins '04Proj. +/(-)
WASH50 - 3110067+33
ATL44 - 378896-8
FLA42 - 398483+1
PHI41 - 408286-4
NYM40 - 418071+9
StL51 - 30102105-3
CHI40 - 418089-9
HOU39 - 427892-14
MILW38 - 437667+9
PIT35 - 467072-2
CINN31 - 506276-14
SD44 - 378887+1
ARZ39 - 427851+27
LAD38 - 437693-17
SF34 - 476891-23
COL28 - 535868-10





TEAM81 Game Rec.Proj. Wins# Wins '04Proj. +/(-)
BOS46 - 359298-6
BALT44 - 378878+10
NYY42 - 3984101-17
TOR41 - 408267+15
TB27 - 545470-16
CHIW55 - 2611083+27
MINN46 - 3592920
CLEV45 - 369080+10
DET38 - 437672+4
KC26 - 555258-6
LAA50 - 3110092+8
TEX43 - 388689-3
OAK40 - 418091-11
SEA35 - 467063+7

Willets Point
Jul 06 2005 08:58 AM

I like the whole Yankees not making the playoffs aspect of the projection.

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 06 2005 09:01 AM

I'm much less optimistic about that than I was a month ago.

I think the Yankees will end up with about 90 wins. Not enough, probably, for a division title, but it might get them a wild card.

And didn't they win the World Series in 2000 with only about 88 wins?

Elster88
Jul 06 2005 09:02 AM

87, I think, though they had clinched the division with their 84th win about three weeks earlier, IIRC.

Elster88
Jul 06 2005 09:02 AM

Yankee pride and all that.

Willets Point
Jul 06 2005 09:05 AM

If I recall correctly the Yankees lost a game, but then the Red Sox lost too thus allowing the Yankees clinch and they had the usual bachanallian champagne orgy despite the embarrassing fashion in which they clinched. The Post or the News had a photo of a champagne-drenched Torre that we all mocked at Mets Online.

Frayed Knot
Jul 06 2005 11:52 AM

I think the Yanx have a better chance at their division then they do at the Wild Card. If Boston had played better during the NYY downtime I might think differently, but after a half-season of mediocrity they're only a few good days from being in 1st place. It's certainly not a given, but with even a decent year out of Boston there'd be a 10-game gap right now. Instead, they have to outlast each of the 3 teams from what is now almost a dead heat.

With the WC, yeah they have the cushion of losing out to one of the AL-East teams but then have to outlast ALL of the other contenders: Minny, Injuns, Rangers, (maybe even the suddenly hot A's) plus the remainder of the East non-winners.
Meanwhile, those east teams are likely to spend the 2nd half beating each other up. Cleveland and Minny, on the other hand, have MUCH easier skeds remaining as far as playing .500+ teams (something like 30-some games for Cleveland vs 60+ for the Yanx).

Frayed Knot
Jul 06 2005 11:53 AM

Team progressions throughout the year to date:












10 Games25 Games40 Games54 Games81 Games
WASH6 - 413 - 1222 - 1828 - 2650 - 31
ATL6 - 415 - 1023 - 1729 - 2544 - 37
FLA5 - 515 - 1024 - 1628 - 2642 - 39
PHIL4 - 611 - 1418 - 2228 - 2641 - 40
METS5 - 512 - 1321 - 1928 - 2640 - 41
StL7 - 315 - 1025 - 1535 - 1951 - 30
CHIC4 - 612 - 1318 - 2229 - 2540 - 41
HOU5 - 511 - 1415 - 2520 - 3439 - 42
MILW5 - 512 - 1319 - 2126 - 2838 - 43
PITT4 - 69 - 169 - 1619 - 2135 - 46
CINN5 - 510 - 1514 - 2626 - 2838 - 43
SD5 - 511 - 1424 - 1633 - 2144 - 37
ARZ6 - 414 - 1023 - 1730 - 2438 - 43
LAD8 - 216 - 922 - 1827 - 2738 - 43
SF5 - 514 - 1119 - 2124 - 3034 - 47
COL2 - 86 - 1412 - 2818 - 3628 - 53


We're being very consistant with our inconsistancy.








10 Games25 Games40 Games54 Games81 Games
BOST5 - 513 - 1223 - 1730 - 2446 - 35
BALT5 - 517 - 826 - 1432 - 2244 - 37
NYY4 - 610 - 1521 - 1927 - 2742 - 39
TOR7 - 313 - 1221 - 1928 - 2641 - 40
TB4 - 68 - 1714 - 2619 - 3527 - 54
CHIW7 - 318 - 728 - 1236 - 1855 - 26
MINN7 - 315 - 1024 - 1632 - 2246 - 35
CLEV4 - 610 - 1517 - 2325 - 2945 - 36
DET3 - 712 - 1319 - 2126 - 2838 - 43
KC4 - 67 - 1811 - 2917 - 3726 - 55
LAA6 - 414 - 1123 - 1731 - 2350 - 31
TEX4 - 612 - 1321 - 1931 - 2343 - 38
OAK4 - 613 - 1216 - 2421 - 3340 - 41
SEA5 - 512 - 1316 - 2423 - 3135 - 46

Elster88
Jul 06 2005 12:29 PM

The 54 game mark for the NL East still boggles my mind.

Rotblatt
Jul 06 2005 12:40 PM

Boston needs Curt to come back at 100% and stay that way. That should really help them a lot, especially cause it'll allow Arroyo to go back to the pen.

Getting Foulke straightened out would help too, but the bigger thing, IMO, is getting him out of there for now. Use Timlin in the high-leverage spots until it looks like Foulke has turned the corner; if it looks like he's not going to, then find a top-notch reliever and pay whatever you need to for him.

If they can do all that, and stay relatively healthy, I think they'll be able to stay atop the East.

I suspect the Sox and Yankees will continue to make it interesting as Baltimore fades away, though . . .

Frayed Knot
Aug 07 2005 12:50 PM

All teams have now reached the 108-game mark (2/3 of the season).
The table shows each team's records at game 108, plus a comparison as to how their wins in the first 1/3 of the season stacks up to their wins in the second third.




Rec @ 1081st 542nd 54Diff
ATL62 - 482933+4
WASH58 - 502830+2
FLA56 - 5228280
PHIL56 - 522729+2
NYM54 - 542826-2
StL68 - 403533-2
HOU59 - 492039+19
CHIC54 - 542925-4
MIL53 - 552627+1
CINN48 - 602127+6
PITT46 - 622521-4
SD53 - 553320-13
ARZ52 - 563022-8
LA48 - 602721-6
SF47 - 612423-1
COL40 - 681822+4



















Rec @ 1081st 542nd 54Diff
BOS62 - 463032+2
NYY57 - 512730+3
TOR56 - 532827-1
BAL52 - 563022-8
TB42 - 661923+4
CHIW70 - 383634-2
CLEV57 - 512532+7
MINN55 - 533223-9
DET52 - 5626260
KC38 - 701721+4
LAA62 - 4631310
OAK61 - 472140+19
TEX54 - 543123-8
SEA47 - 612324+1

Frayed Knot
Aug 20 2005 07:53 PM

Time for the 3/4 season update.
Records shown are as they were at the (approx) 1/4, 1/2 & 3/4 marks in the season.

40 Games81 Games120 Games
ATL23 - 1744 - 3769 - 51
PHIL18 - 2240 - 4164 - 56
WASH22 - 1850 - 3163 - 57
FLA24 - 1642 - 3963 - 57
NYM21 - 1941 - 4061 - 59
StL25 - 1551 - 3076 - 44
HOU15 - 2539 - 4264 - 56
CHIC18 - 2240 - 4158 - 62
MIL19 - 2138 - 4358 - 62
CINN14 - 2631 - 5054 - 66
PITT19 - 2135 - 4651 - 69
SD24 - 1644 - 3759 - 61
ARZ23 - 1739 - 4256 - 64
LA22 - 1838 - 4355 - 65
SF19 - 2134 - 4753 - 67
COL12 - 2828 - 5344 - 76



40 Games81 Games120 Games
BOS23 - 1746 - 3570 - 50
NYY21 - 1942 - 3966 - 54
TOR21 - 1941 - 4063 - 57
BAL26 - 1444 - 3760 - 60
TB14 - 2627 - 5447 - 74
CHIW28 - 1255 - 2674 - 46
CLEV17 - 2345 - 3664 - 56
MINN24 - 1646 - 3563 - 67
DET19 - 2138 - 4358 - 62
KC11 - 2926 - 5538 - 82
LAA23 - 1750 - 3169 - 51
OAK16 - 2435 - 4667 - 53
TEX21 - 1943 - 3867 - 53
SEA16 - 2441 - 4052 - 68

Giant Squidlike Creature
Oct 06 2005 11:33 AM

No 162-game mark?

Nymr83
Oct 06 2005 12:11 PM

i have hte exact stats for the 54 game mark at home, i can post them later if anyone wants to compare to the later 2/3 of the season

Frayed Knot
Oct 07 2005 10:07 AM

OK, if you really want it ...





TEAMWins - 1st 1/3Wins - 2nd 1/3Wins - Last 1/3Final Record
ATL29332892 - 72
PHI29283288 - 74
NYM28262983 - 79
FLA28282783 - 79
WASH28302381 - 81
StL353332100 - 62
HOU20393089 - 73
MILW26272881 - 81
CHIC29252579 - 83
CIN21272573 - 89
PITT25212167 - 95
SD33202982 - 82
ARZ30222577 - 85
SF24232875 - 87
LA27212371 - 91
COL18222767 - 95

Frayed Knot
Oct 07 2005 10:18 AM



TEAMWins - 1st 1/3Wins - 2nd 1/3Wins - Last 1/3Final Record
NYY27303895 - 67
BOS30323395 - 67
TOR28272580 - 82
BAL32202274 - 88
TB19232567 - 95
CHIW36302999 - 63
CLE25323693 - 69
MINN32232883 - 79
DET26261971 - 91
KC17211856 - 106
LAA31313395 - 67
OAK21402788 - 74
TEX31232579 - 83
SEA23242269 - 93

SI Metman
Oct 07 2005 10:29 AM

Gotta give the MFY credit for that strong last 1/3 of the season.

Nymr83
Oct 07 2005 11:57 AM

the 82 win padres? thats sad. sadder still is that they only need to go 78-86 to win that dvision.

another good argument for the old 2 divisions per league.

Valadius
Oct 07 2005 12:31 PM

Actually... it's 78-84.

Edgy DC
Oct 07 2005 12:34 PM

There were division winners with low win totals in the two-divsion alignment also.

So I've heard.

Nymr83
Oct 07 2005 12:42 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
There were division winners with low win totals in the two-divsion alignment also.

So I've heard.


but it is obviously statistically less likely to happen.
and even the '73 mets were over .500...just barely but over is over, my gripe with the nba/nhl has always been that i hate the idea of a team that win half their games or less in the playoffs.

Frayed Knot
Oct 07 2005 01:10 PM

The thing about the extra divisions is that no matter how heavily you "unbalance" the sked toward intra-division play, the fact that your in-division opponents now represent a smaller piece of the whole makes the sub-.500 winner that much more likely.
The NHL & NBA have their own problems in that they simply let too many teams into the post-season but the NFL is going to get bitten by this also now that they've gone from 5 team divisions (where fully half of the league's games were intra-divison) down to 4 (where they're now under 38%). I think they had two 8-8 playoff teams last year but at least those were WCs. They'll have a 7-9 division winner soon enough, it's only a matter of time.

In '73 it wasn't that the NL East got smushed by the west (well, they did but it wasn't as lopsided as you might think) it's that they just beat each other up which "accordian-ed" the division towards the middle. Still, part of what "saved" the .500 mark was that each team played 90 of it's 162 in-division. Now, teams are down to below half and Interleague makes the dreaded turkey playoff team more likely since now not even each league as a whole is guaranteed of being .500 - and indeed the AL got the better of the NL this season.

The "brain"-trust at MLB needs to remember all this if/when they ever get the idea to go to 32 teams teams of 8 4-team divisions. So if you happen to hear someone proposing such a system please beat the scoundrel into a bloody pulp at your earliest convenience. You'll be doing your fellow baseball fans a favor.

Edgy DC
Oct 07 2005 01:18 PM

]Now, teams are down to below half...


And some peeps complain that they're sick of seeing the same teams.

One of those things that make me wonder if some baseball fans actually like baseball.

Frayed Knot
Oct 07 2005 01:25 PM

Now imagine not only the 8 4-team division set-up but also the "regional realignment" that many talk about; like one where the NYM, NYY, Bos & Phil comprise one division. How sick of the Phils & Sawx do you think NY fans would get seeing them 40 times/yr each?!?
And even seeing each division opponent as many as 20 times per year still only gets you 60 of 162 games (37%) within the division. It would be the worst of both worlds.