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Edgy DC
Jul 28 2005 12:18 AM

Jose Reyes now has a .305 on-base percentage.

It's not great. It's not good. But it's going in the right direction, and it's been a long climb.

Willets Point
Aug 16 2005 05:18 PM

Down to .298 now.

smg58
Aug 16 2005 07:01 PM

The next six weeks are crucial for Reyes. Is he a keeper, or a teaser? Anderson Hernandez does not appear to have the same pop in his bat, but does look like he has comparable speed and defensive skills, and would likely make less outs. Reyes needs to finish with an OBP comfortably above .300 before I'd consider him untouchable.

Frayed Knot
Aug 16 2005 09:15 PM

]The next six weeks are crucial for Reyes.


No they're not.
He's 22 years old and I don't think there's any chance that the team decides whether or not to cut bait on him based on what happens over the next month and change.
Hernandez is having a nice season in the minors but was considered swappable for a career backup catcher just a few months ago and I recently read that Met mgmt isn't sold on him as a ML regular yet. So let's hold off before we pronounce him a capable replacement for someone who was - and still is to some extent - one of the more exciting and talented young players around.

TheOldMole
Aug 16 2005 09:16 PM

Reyes is untouchable.

soupcan
Aug 16 2005 09:25 PM

smg58 wrote:
The next six weeks are crucial for Reyes. Is he a keeper, or a teaser?


Is Reyes a keeper? Are you posting from an asylum?

I was used to these kinds of posts on the MOFo but I have come to expect some more educated opinions here.

I'm equally as stunned to think that a Mets fan would even think this as I am to see it on this forum.

Valadius
Aug 16 2005 09:31 PM

Left side of the infield = Untouchable.

We must never trade Wright or Reyes, and we must throw everything at them if they become free agents in the future.

soupcan
Aug 16 2005 09:42 PM

Valadius wrote:
Left side of the infield = Untouchable.

We must never trade Wright or Reyes, and we must throw everything at them if they become free agents in the future.


I second that emotion.

Frayed Knot
Aug 16 2005 09:50 PM

Well, let's not go overboard here and claim NEVER about guys in their 2nd year. You certainly don't know what the future brings and what's going to be going on when these guys reach FA-gency and - gun to my head - I'd deal Reyes before I'd deal Wright.

It's just that I think fans - and maybe Met fans in particular - often show a lot less patience than the teams they complain don't show enough patience, and are FAR too quick to fall in love with the thought of "prospects" they've barely (or never) seen - some of which will be nothing more than suspects.

But, having said all that, it's way too soon to be forcing make-or-break decisions on Reyes. He's still close to be the youngest player in MLB in what is essentially his first full season.

smg58
Aug 17 2005 12:58 AM

I suppose I should have said that the next six weeks were critical to my personal and subjective assessment of Reyes, rather than to anything the Mets wouldn't likely do with him. He's shown flashes of greatness, but I'll be frustrated if, after the hot streak he just had, he winds up with pedestrian numbers outside of stolen bases.

It would take a lot for me to part with Reyes too, but I'll be honest and say that I'm not sold on him. It's obvious that good things happen when he gets on base, but that's not very meaningful if he can't get on above 30% of the time. It's possible that the hitting streak is the start of him getting it as a hitter, and I think we can all agree that that's what we want, but it's also possible that he'll wind up with a similar BA/OBP/SLG to what he did last year with his season being constantly interrupted. I don't think it's unreasonable to demand a .700 OPS before declaring somebody off limits.

(To answer your next question, Wright is untouchable, and I'd put only him and Pedro beyond all consideration.)

Johnny Dickshot
Aug 17 2005 07:18 AM

Average NL Shortstop .257/.307/.371

Jose Reyes .273/.298/.370

KC
Aug 17 2005 07:37 AM

In the last (I think it's the last) Baseball America, league managers voted
Reyes the third most exciting player in the league, the fastest baserunner,
and the third best IF arm. He a baby among the men that populate these
various lists. I ain't losing sleep over his on-base percentage at this point.

Edgy DC
Aug 17 2005 07:39 AM

That's regulars, right? Not net production from the position?

Johnny Dickshot
Aug 17 2005 07:42 AM

That's SS's with 250 PA's

seawolf17
Aug 17 2005 08:08 AM

Every time the subject of Reyes comes up, I have only one thing to say. He's only 22 years old! Cut him some slack, jack!

86-Dreamer
Aug 17 2005 08:39 AM

He is only 22. He is very exciting, and he is a productive MLB starting SS right now despite some obvious flaws. I most certainly hope that the Mets don't make a decision that they "have" to trade him.

BUT, lets say on a purely hypothetical basis, the Brewers call Omar one day and say "Prince Fielder, straight up for Reyes" - what say you?

that is the only situation i would consider moving reyes - in exchange for another organization's top MLB ready player, 25 years old or less, several years away from arb/FA, and at a position of obvious need for the Mets.

Elster88
Aug 17 2005 08:53 AM

There is an interesting statistic which I saw once during a game. Reyes has (or had) the highest percentage of "runs scored" to "times on base." That must easily make up for his lower on base percentage. Plus, he's a pretty darn good shortstop. I think it's a little silly to discuss theoretical deals to trade Reyes, as I doubt management will ever do so. Nor do I want them too.

Then again, I've discussed plenty of silly things on this board.

Johnny Dickshot
Aug 17 2005 09:10 AM

I like Reyes and wouldn't trade him fopr Prince Fielder.

His great ratio of RS per tmes on base suggests that any uptick in his OBP is gold.

I think it's reasonable to expect he can reach base with the league average, and may get there before the year is out.

Edgy DC
Aug 17 2005 09:16 AM

And that's the rub that "fans" often never see. They're so hot to imagine themselves as "players," that they always want to move the big properties for the other big properties.

Back in the very early days of FAN, back when the hosts were good at telling callers what chumps they were --- a la Howie Rose --- a chump calls in with a "Strawberry's gotta go" bee in his bonnet after a bad game by Darryl.

So the host strings him along: "Oh, Strawberry's gotta go, does he?"

"He's gotta be traded now while he's good. He's terrible. He strikes out all the time!"

"Oh, he's good, but he's terrible?"

"He's good but he's playing terrible!"

"And who should he be traded for."

The guy thinks. You could practically hear it. Two of the other issues of the day were Gary Carter's precipitous decline and the Mets not meeting some imaginary standard of African-American players. Finally the guy spits out. "Strawberry should be traded for a black catcher."

Reyes is, at 22, averageish for a starting shortstop. His OPS says average, his zone rating brings him below average, and his wheels click him back a little above. If that, combined with the raw --- but not fully realized --- skills that are apparent, doesn't convince would-be wheeler-dealers to lay off, I don't know what will.

I've been as frustrated as any with Reyes. I've also been excited as any. That's a big part of what I hate (and hate is for Hiter) about trading. It teaches kids, sports fans, and kid sports fans that it's the way to solve problems.

86-Dreamer
Aug 17 2005 09:24 AM

I agree with all of the positive things said about Reyes - I like him a lot. I am not proposing a trade for Prince Fielder or anyone else, just using him as an illustration of the only type of deal I would ever even consider for moving Reyes.

I can't even imagine a deal that would tempt me to trade Wright.

KC
Aug 17 2005 09:26 AM

Hate is for hitter?

There is no problem to solve here. If anyone is worried about Jose Reyes,
I suggest they find a new hobby.

Edgy DC
Aug 17 2005 09:46 AM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 17 2005 09:55 AM

]Hate is for hitter?


No, for "Hiter." You know, the guy who invaded Poand.*

*Not a Nazi joke but a joke about my typo.

KC
Aug 17 2005 09:48 AM

I'm a looser, I can't even question a typo without re-mispellinig it.

Rotblatt
Aug 17 2005 09:52 AM

I love Jose and currently view him as untouchable, but there's a chance he'll turn out to be a speedier Cristian Guzman.

They were both sped through the minors at young ages--Cristian actually more than Jose--and both showed flashes of greatness. In Guzman's third full year at the age of 23, he posted a .814 OPS--batted .302 with a .337 OBP, a .477 SLG, 25 SB, 10 HR & 14 3B. Since then he's been a league average shortstop until this year, when he's been the worst in the league.

Now, Reyes consistently put up better numbers than Guzman throughout the minors and he's clearly a better base stealer, but there are some real comparables there. Neither walks much, both strike out a bit, and both have a little pop.

My basic point is that just because he's young doesn't mean he's bound to improve. He has to work at it and be willing to adjust. We've seen some of that from Jose, but he's got a long, long way to go.

And Jose's great and all, but he can't be considered anywhere NEAR where David Wright is. Wright is the third-best 3B in the league in his first full season. Jose at this point is average. There's just no comparison.

Edgy DC
Aug 17 2005 09:58 AM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 17 2005 10:22 AM

No, Reyes isn't bound to do anything.

It's just that I find maddening the belief that the way to deal with the unknown --- and what of any player's future is guaranteed? --- is to keep dealing.

smg58
Aug 17 2005 10:02 AM

For the record, it would take a more special player than Soriano, and a more established player than Prince Fielder, for me to consider trading Reyes. The point I was trying to make is that Reyes needs to show more than he has up to this point -- or at least show it more consistently -- for me to put him completely off the table, and that the Mets could survive at shortstop if he brought us a big upgrade elsewhere. My apologies for wording it in a way that caused some of you to question my sanity, but perhaps I was subconsciously trying to spark some dialogue...

Centerfield
Aug 17 2005 10:50 AM

I like Reyes...but it's important to keep in mind that the only thing Reyes does exceptionally is steal bases. He is a good defensive shortstop...and as Dickshot posted, he is more or less average in the other offensive categories. Of course, he is 22 years old and could get better. For me, that's enough. Now, for the record, no one is "untouchable". If St. Louis said "Hey, we'll give you Pujols", I wouldn't hesitate. But it would take quite a bit to make me happy about trading him...more than Soriano...more than Cecil Jr.

I think though, that he is not and will never be the prototypical leadoff hitter. As much as we point to his other attributes, that OBP is terrible for a #1. If the Mets could find a high OBP leadoff guy and slide Reyes to #2, I think that might work.

Elster88
Aug 17 2005 10:56 AM

Centerfield wrote:
I think though, that he is not and will never be the prototypical leadoff hitter.
I agree with this.... As much as we point to his other attributes, that OBP is terrible for a #1.
Centerfield wrote:
If the Mets could find a high OBP leadoff guy and slide Reyes to #2, I think that might work.
....but I don't agree with that. If uses his speed to score more often per trip on base, then it makes up for the lower OBP.

Centerfield
Aug 17 2005 11:53 AM

If [Reyes] uses his speed to score more often per trip on base, then it makes up for the lower OBP.

I decided to check. I originally compared Reyes with Luis Castillo (since he is the prototypical high OBP guy) but then I expanded my comparison to the top ten basestealers in the majors. Below is the percentage of runs scored vs. plate appearances for the top ten guys (plus Luis Castillo just for good measure):

(btw, if anyone who is more HTML talented wants to make a chart, feel free)

Scott Podsednik PA: 422 RS: 62 = 14.6%

Jose Reyes PA: 524 RS: 72 = 13.7%

Juan Pierre PA: 514 RS: 75 = 14.6%

Chone Figgins PA: 514 RS: 83 = 16.1%

Carl Crawford PA: 520 RS: 73 = 14.6%

Rafael Furcal PA: 511 RS: 73 = 14.2%

Julio Lugo PA: 503 RS: 63 = 12.5%

Ryan Freel PA: 304 RS: 51 = 16.8%

Willy Taveras PA: 470 RS: 64 = 13.6%

Ichiro Suzuki PA: 526 RS: 84 = 16%

Luis Castillo PA: 405 RS: 60 = 14.8%


Ranking them by RS% you get this:

1. Ryan Freel 16.8%
2. Chone Figgins 16.1%
3. Ichiro Suzuki 16.0%
4. Luis Castillo 14.8%
5 (tie). Juan Pierre 14.6%
5 (tie). Scott Podsednik 14.6%
5.(tie) Carl Crawford 14.6%
8. Rafael Furcal 14.2%
9. Jose Reyes 13.7%
10. Willy Taveras 13.6%
11. Julio Lugo 12.5%

Ranking them by OBP you get this:

1. Luis Castillo .394
2. Ryan Freel .380
3. Julio Lugo .354
4. Ichiro Suzuki .351
5. Scott Podsednik .348
6. Chone Figgins .340
7. Willy Taveras .338
8. Rafael Furcal .333
9. Juan Pierre .319
10. Carl Crawford .316
11. Jose Reyes .298


Because Reyes has the lowest OBP, you'd expect that he'd have the lowest runs scored percentage. However, as we mentioned, he scores when he gets on base at a higher clip than the other guys. This is why he jumps to #9 on that list. However, it's only #9, and despite the fact he has more steals than everyone except Podsednik, the RS% doesn't seem to be as high as you might expect. I'm not sure this marginal difference is enough to "make up" for the lower OBP or not.

The interesting guy on this list is Julio Lugo. He is third in OBP, second highest stealing percentage, and yet ranks dead last in RS%. What does that tell you about the rest of that Devil Rays lineup...