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David Wright: A Rookie Year

Edgy DC
Jul 25 2005 12:19 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 25 2005 12:58 PM

David Wright has been very hot, going .429 // .500 // .643 // 1.143 over the last four days. The reason I bring that up is because it was July 20th that four days ago was the anniversary of Wright's callup to the big leagues.

Subtracting those last four games, we can get a snapshot of what Wright's first year looks like against the standard of a complete season.

GABRH2B3BHRRBITBBBSOSBCSSFSHHbPGiDPAVGOBPSLGOPS
1616009817643228903075510514430717.293.360.512.871

Edgy DC
Jul 25 2005 12:32 PM

So, pretending that's an actual season, it would have exceeded (In mostcases, seriously exceeded) the Met rookie records for at-bats (Ty Wigginton, 573, 2002), runs (Cleon Jones, 74, 1966), hits (Wigginton, 146, 2002), doubles (Wigginton, 36, 2002), home runs, (Darryl Strawberry, 26, 1983), extra-base hits (Wigginton, 53, 2002), runs batted in (Strawberry, 74, 1983), total bases (I'm assuming this one), and batting average (.275, Jones, 1966).

It ties the Strawberry's 1983 slugging mark of .512. I can't find any rookie standards for on-base percentage or walks, but he's likely exceeded those also.

holychicken
Jul 25 2005 12:36 PM

Yeah, I agree. Wright sucks.

MFS62
Jul 25 2005 12:39 PM

Interesting.
Bill James wrote that you can get a pretty good preview of a player's career by looking at his first 500 AB in the majors.
Whether 500 or 600 is better (I know, more data is better for basing projections), it looks like Mr. Wright is meeting the expectations we had for him. And he seems to have come back from the All Star break well rested. He had been in a mild slump prior to the ASB.

Of course, there are exceptions. Sometimes swings can occur when players are traded to different leagues/ teams/ ballparks.
IIRC, Paul O'Neill had about a .265 BA in over 3,000 AB in the National league at the time he was traded to the Yanks. He went on to hit over .300 in more AB there for the rest of his career. (Statistics on broken water coolers with each team are unavailable at this time.)
I attributed that to the fact that at that time, the NL was more of a fastball league and the AL more of a breaking ball league, and Paul had what was called "slider bat speed".
Didn't mean to hijack your thread. Good job. But I try never to miss a chance to slam the AL and the Yanks in general and O'Neill in particular.

Later

metirish
Jul 25 2005 12:45 PM

Wright compares well to Miguel Cabrera's first full year in the majors, 2004 he played 160 games, his numbers were..

Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

2004 FLA 160 603 101 177 31 1 33 112 68 148 5 2 .294 .366 .512 .879

Now when you keep in mind the Mets fell apart last year in the second half, I don't know if Wright will be knocking in a 130 RBI anytime soon but 100+ should be in reach.

seawolf17
Jul 25 2005 12:49 PM

Can we trade this Wright guy? I bet he has some trade value.

Rotblatt
Jul 25 2005 01:05 PM

Wright for Tom Gordon NOW!!!

A-Rod can move into centerfield and we could totally use the bullpen help!

seawolf17
Jul 25 2005 01:07 PM

Better! Wright for Ty Wigginton and Jose Mesa!

ScarletKnight41
Jul 25 2005 01:10 PM

Where are those emoticons when we need them?

smg58
Jul 26 2005 09:56 AM

It's been my impression that it's not so much the first 500 or 600 AB, but the second year that really tells the tale. (At least for hitters; for pitchers it might take longer.) That's good news for Wright, but so-so news for Reyes. (I'm treating this year as Reyes' second because last year kept getting interrupted.)

Edgy DC
Jul 26 2005 10:09 AM

By the way, I got those rookie records from the Mets site and some of them are definitiely wrong. For one, it hadn't been updated to include Ty Wigginton's 2002 season. So I had to fill in those. But also, I'm looking at that batting average record by Cleon Jones. That's not right. Hubie Brooks hit .307 in 1981 while getting enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.

rpackrat
Jul 26 2005 04:12 PM

]It's been my impression that it's not so much the first 500 or 600 AB, but the second year that really tells the tale. (At least for hitters; for pitchers it might take longer.) That's good news for Wright, but so-so news for Reyes. (I'm treating this year as Reyes' second because last year kept getting interrupted.)


Reyes is not having as bad a year as osme people suppose. Baseball Prospectus has his VORP at 16.8, which ranks 5th among NL shortstops. When you consider how young he is, I still think he's going to be a star.

Elster88
Jul 26 2005 04:14 PM

I wonder how old he really is.

Edgy DC
Jul 26 2005 11:06 PM

Just took Francis deep.

Maybe he can set some sophomore records.

old original jb
Jul 28 2005 12:35 PM
re: Rookie records

How should I feel about the fact that so many Mets rookie records belong to Ty Wigginton?

Edgy DC
Jul 28 2005 12:55 PM

Frustrated perhaps less with the Mets inability to produce better rookies than Ty than their historical unwillingness to give many rookies regular jobs out of camp.

Also, a few better rookies came up during pitchers' eras, when compiling number stats was a little big harder, and two solid rookie campaigns --- those of Hubie Brooks and Mookie Wilson ---- were cut short from their compilation potential by the 1981 players' strike.

MFS62
Jul 28 2005 01:36 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
Frustrated perhaps less with the Mets inability to produce better rookies than Ty than their historical unwillingness to give many rookies regular jobs out of camp.


Edgy, I feel the opposite. I have been very frustrated with the inability of the Mets to scout, sign and develop position players over the years. You know, the kind of players who can step right in and contribute immediately Unfortunately, the types (levels) of players who they have brought up generally had to be slowly integrated into the lineup to get comfortable because of a lack of developed or natural talent. Or, if immediately inserted into the lineup, were unable to meet the challenge of playing every day.

Later


Later

Edgy DC
Jul 28 2005 01:54 PM

Well, then, we should all be pig-in-slop happy now.

Wow many tmes have the Mets presented two such talented yet similarly inexperienced batters day-in, day-out in their lineup? Comparisons all seem to fall short. Jones and Swoboda? Wilson and Brooks? Jefferies and Elster? Kent and Hundley?

MFS62
Jul 28 2005 02:16 PM

And my point was that there are huge time gaps in the examples you gave. (And reminding you that Kent was the product of another organization and was arguably the most productive hitter of the bunch). As I mentioned, I have been frustrated that there has been no steady stream of players ready to take regular spots in the lineup over the years.
And that is something I am not happy about, pig-in-slop or not.

You mentioned what has been more frustrating to you. I disagreed. No need to get sarcastic about it.

Later

edit: changed one word.

Edgy DC
Jul 28 2005 02:18 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 28 2005 02:46 PM

I didn't get nasty.

It was not my intention to come across as anything like nasty.

MFS62
Jul 28 2005 02:33 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
I didn't get nasty.


I know. I changed that word with my edit. Colorful metaphor, though.

Later

Edgy DC
Jul 28 2005 02:47 PM

If that's sarcastic, it certainly wasn't aimed at you.

It was more like hyperbolic. Not sarcastic.

MFS62
Jul 28 2005 03:39 PM

Feeling overly sensitive (paranoid?) today.
Thanks for the clarification.

But I really did laugh at the porcine turn of phrase.

Later

Elster88
Jul 29 2005 04:37 PM

Just looked over his UMDB page, memories and all that for the first time. I'm pretty happy being me, but sometimes I think it'd be cool to be Wright.

Willets Point
Jul 29 2005 04:46 PM

If you were you'd be contractualy obligated to stay out of bars.