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Edgy DC
Jul 15 2005 04:33 PM

I like to look at net games back -- that is the games back a team is behind everybody. It's an answer to those who'll tell you that games back is a misleading when there are a lot of teams between your team and the leaders.

I'm not sure why nobody prints standings with this column.

EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWEST AL L10STRK
Washington5237.584--30-1322-2418-1814-98-412-64-6L3
Atlanta5040.5562.52.529-1421-2624-1916-73-67-86-4L3
Philadelphia4644.5116.510.527-1919-2518-2514-97-27-86-4W3
Florida4443.5067.012.025-2219-2120-229-115-510-54-6L4
New York4544.5067.012.026-1819-2624-2012-124-25-105-5W2

Edgy DC
Jul 18 2005 02:07 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 18 2005 02:19 PM

So here. In the last few days, the Mets have lost no ground to the first-place Nationals, but have in reality backslid in the Net Games Back column, by losing games to the second- and third-place teams.

EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWEST INTERL10STRK
Washington5339.576--30-1323-2618-1815-118-412-63-7L1
Atlanta5241.5591.51.529-1423-2726-2016-73-67-86-4L1
Philadelphia4845.5165.59.529-2019-2520-2614-97-27-86-4W2
Florida4545.5007.014.025-2220-2321-249-115-510-53-7L2
New York4646.5007.014.027-2019-2625-2212-124-25-105-5W1

metirish
Jul 18 2005 02:11 PM

That's great work, the Mets are 4-2 versus the West, lets improve on that this week

Benjamin Grimm
Jul 18 2005 02:18 PM

Your new standings column makes a lot of sense.

I wish I had thought of it!

Edgy DC
Jul 21 2005 07:54 PM

Roy Oswalt shuts down the Nationals in Washington for eight innings, yielding only six hits and no walks. But the world being such as it is, Phil Garner turns the 3-0 lead over to Brad Lidge, who hangs on after giving up a 400-foot two-run homer to Preston Wilson. DC drops into a tie for first, after being alone up there since June 4.

Since the last update, Florida has gained overall, but slipped into last.

EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWEST INTERL10STRK
Washington5442.563--31-1623-2618-1815-128-412-62-8L2
Atlanta5442.563--29-1425-2826-2016-75-77-85-5W1
New York4946.5164.59.030-2019-2625-2212-127-25-106-4W4
Philadelphia4947.5105.010.530-2219-2520-2614-98-47-86-4L2
Florida4746.5055.512.525-2222-2421-249-117-610-53-7W2

metirish
Jul 21 2005 08:55 PM

Not a bad day for the NY NL team in the NL East, big thanks to the Dodgers and Astros, Mets are 7-2 V the West, love that.

Edgy DC
Jul 25 2005 12:49 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 25 2005 01:07 PM

Easily overlookable in the Mets' recent good spate is that the Marlins have had a good weekend also, leaving every team in the division at least two games over .500. Obviously that's pretty unsustainable, but who is going to drop first?

EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWEST INTERL10STRK
Atlanta5544.556--29-1426-3026-2016-76.97-85-5L1
Washington5544.556--32-1823-2618-1816-149-612-63.7L1
Philadelphia5247.5253.06.033-2219-2520-2614-911-47-87-3W3
New York5147.5203.57.532-2119-2625-2212-129-35-107-3W2
Florida4947.5104.511.525-2224-2521-249-119-710-55-5W2

ABG
Jul 25 2005 01:01 PM

Aren't the Mets 6.5 NGB, not 7.5?

Edgy DC
Jul 25 2005 01:03 PM

3.5 games behind Atlanta +
3.5 games behind Washington +
0.5 games behind Philadelphia =
7.5 games.

Centerfield
Jul 25 2005 01:05 PM

I think you might have a typo regarding Washington's win total. Same as Atlanta, no?

Edgy DC
Jul 25 2005 01:07 PM

Yup. Fixed.

Rotblatt
Jul 25 2005 01:09 PM

Phillies should be 7 games back, then, right?

Thanks for the chart, by the way! I dig it.

ABG
Jul 25 2005 01:20 PM

Yeah, I just based my comment off of where I saw us relative to the Phils.

Edgy DC
Aug 07 2005 06:16 AM

EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWEST INTERL10STRK
Atlanta6447.577--35-1529-3229-2022-106-97-87-3W1
Washington5852.5275.55.534-2124-3119-2316-1411-912-63-7L2
Philadelphia5853.5236.07.536-2422-2920-2617-1414-57-86-4W1
Florida5652.5196.58.029-2427-2823-2514-159-710-56-4L1
New York5654.5097.512.035-2321-3125-2216-1710-55-105-5W2

Edgy DC
Aug 07 2005 01:11 PM

Pl.Wild CardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWEST INTERL10STRK
1Houston5951.536--36-1523-3613-1323-2116-97-86-4L3
2Washington5852.5271.01.034-2124-3119-2316-1411-912-63-7L2
3Philadelphia5853.5231.52.036-2422-2920-2617-1414-57-86-4W1
4Florida5652.5192.03.529-2427-2823-2514-159-710-56-4L1
5New York5654.5093.07.535-2321-3125-2216-1710-55-105-5W2
6Milwaukee5556.4954.514.030-2025-3614-1522-2311-118-75-5L1
7Chicago5456.4915.018.027-2627-309-1825-1914-106-93-7L4
8Arizona5359.4737.032.026-3227-277-1212-1526-228-105-5L2
9Cincinnati4961.44510.056.033-2816-3312-1316-2814-127-87-3W1
10Los Angeles4961.44910.056.026-2723-347-1112-1625-215-133-7L1
11San Francisco4861.44010.561.025-3223-294-1115-1423-246-125-5W3
12Pittsburgh4764.42312.583.026-3021-3412-1516-3014-125-73-7W1
13Colorado4168.37617.5143.027-2714-419-1011-2315-266-95-5W2

ABG
Aug 07 2005 03:58 PM

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that it's doubtful the Rockies will make the playoffs.

Edgy DC
Aug 07 2005 10:01 PM

Florida leapfrogs from fourth to second in both races.

Pl.EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWEST INTERL10STRK
1Atlanta6448.571--35-1529-3329-2022-116-97-86-4L1
T2Florida5752.5235.55.529-2428-2823-2515-159-710-56-4W1
T2Washington5853.5235.55.534-2224-3119-2316-1411-1012-63-7L3
4Philadelphia5857.5186.07.036-2522-2920-2617-1514-57-86-4L1
5New York5754.5146.59.036-2321-3125-2217-1710-55-105-5W3


Pl.Wild CardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWEST INTERL10STRK
1Houston6051.541--36-1524-3613-1323-2117-97-86-4W1
T2Florida5752.5232.02.029-2428-2823-2515-159-710-56-4W1
T2Washington5853.5232.02.034-2324-3119-2316-1411-1012-63-7L3
4Philadelphia5854.5182.53.536-2522-2920-2617-1414-57-86-4L1
5New York5754.5143.05.536-2321-3125-2217-1710-55-105-5W3
6Milwaukee5656.5004.512.530-2026-3615-1522-2311-118-76-4W1
7Chicago5457.4866.024.027-2627-319-1925-1914-106-92-8L5
8Arizona5459.4787.029.027-3227-277-1212-1527-228-105-5W1
9Los Angeles6061.45010.053.026-2724-347-1113-1625-215-134-6W1
10Cincinnati4962.44111.062.033-2916-3312-1416-2814-127-86-4L1
11San Francisco4862.43611.567.025-3323-294-1115-1523-246-125-5L1
12Pittsburgh4765.42013.589.026-3121-3412-1516-3014-135-73-7L1
13Colorado4169.37318.5149.027-2714-429-1011-2315-276-95-5L1

Edgy DC
Aug 08 2005 07:42 AM

Go ahead. Try not to picture those standings if the Met bullpen held on in those two Milwaukee games.

Rotblatt
Aug 08 2005 12:26 PM

I was looking at our schedule, and in trying to decide what a decent but realistic run by us would look like, given our opponents, I came up with the following W-L record 30-21. That would mean we take 2 of 3 against every team we face EXCEPT the Braves (to whom we lose 2 of 3 each 3-game set), St. Louis (to whom we lose 3 of 4 in our 4-game set) & Colorado (where we win 3 of 4). Totally arbitrary, but also plausible, although I'd hope we'd at least split our series against the Braves. Having said that, we'll probably lose at least one series against a team I've said we'd win, so it's almost kinda sorta balanced.

In a gut-check, WWSB kind of way, I think that's the best we can reasonably hope to do over the rest of the season. Unfortunately, that would only net us a .537 record overall, not enough to catch Houston, if they continue to play at their current rate.

I find it fitting that, in my completely biased and unscientific projection, our ability to reach the post-season depends largely on how we play against Atlanta & St. Louis--our most likely opponents IN the postseason.

Elster88
Aug 08 2005 01:24 PM

I am usually the last person to acknowledge morale and chemistry as important parts of baseball. But this team is winning me over. Between the giggling on the bench and the way everyone jumps around (in a non-phony, non-Jeter way), to celebrate wins and good play (see recent Caption This thread) it looks like they're having fun. I think one of the reasons to believe this team has a chance is that they believe.

Frayed Knot
Aug 08 2005 09:06 PM

Mets sit on their asses and catch the Marlins tonight as Fish get stomped twice by Rox.

Rotblatt
Aug 09 2005 01:34 PM

BP's Hit List puts the Metsies at 10th overall in the majors:

]To the Victor Goes the Spoils: Mets win the battle of the Zambranos to wrap up a weekend sweep of the Cubs, halting a slide which saw them lose the previous three series. Jose Reyes is riding a 20-game hitting streak in which he's hit .374/.400/.462 while tacking on 11 steals. That mad dash has pushed his season's OBP all the way up to .303, 14 whole points above Rey OrdoƱez's career mark. You can't spell Mets without Meh... well, close enough.


That's good enough for #4 in the National League, but since Atlanta & Houston are ahead of us, it doesn't matter so much. Or does it? According to their Playoff Odds report (which I believe takes into account current standings, RA & RS as well as strength of remaining schedule), we have a 22.86% shot at the playoffs this year (9.28% shot a champions, 13.59 at wild car), behind Houston, who currently has a 46.50% shot. If we manage to pull into second place, our odds will likely increase pretty dramatically. None of the other contending NL Easters are given as much of a shot as us, based largely on the fact that we have the biggest difference between Adjusted RS & RA in the league at 54(compared to 52 for the Braves).

The adjustment is done for strength of schedule, so what that means is that, according to BP, we've faced tougher opponents than the Braves. More specifically, the Braves' opponents have had average pitching and well below-average hitting, while we have faced average pitching and somewhat above-average hitting. The difference is great enough to give us a 46-run gain against them in our differentials.

Anyway, my point is that stats are neat. And that if we continue to score and limit runs the way we have so far this season, we'll probably continue to gain ground in both the East and in the WC race.

Edgy DC
Aug 11 2005 06:09 AM

Yawn. Another big game tonight. Third place in the division and in thie wildcard standings are both within reach. Every team in the division is 4-6, 5-5, or 6-4 over their last ten. Chicago, losing their last eight, looks like the first team to have blinked in the wildcard scramble.

Willets Point
Aug 11 2005 09:52 AM

Where's Bret? All this winning is bringing out euphoric optomism. I need some cold, hard reality to balance things out.

Rotblatt
Aug 15 2005 11:03 AM

So in order to get back to the pace I laid out for us, we have to sweep either Pittsburgh or Washington and take 2 of 3 from the other team.

Then we have to figure out how to win on the road.

Elster88
Aug 15 2005 11:52 AM

Willets Point wrote:
Where's Bret? All this winning is bringing out euphoric optomism. I need some cold, hard reality to balance things out.


Didn't even need him, the Mets themselves provided reality.

I'm in a bad mood. I hate days off after losses.

Edgy DC
Aug 16 2005 09:46 PM

How did DC get back into second? And who'd've guessed we were as good as anyone in the division over the last ten?

Pl.EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWEST INTERL10STRK
1Atlanta6851.571--39-1829-3329-2022-1110-127-85-5L1
2Washington6355.5344.54.534-2229-3320-2317-1614-1012-65-5W4
3Philadelphia6356.5295.05.536-2627-3020-2717-1519-67-86-4L1
4Florida6157.5176.510.033-2728-3023-2515-1513-1210-55-5L1
5New York6058.5087.514.037-2323-3525-2218-1712-95-106-4W1


Pl.Wild CardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWEST INTERL10STRK
1Houston6455.538--40-1924-3615-1425-2417-97-85-5L1
2Washington6355.5340.50.534-2229-3320-2317-1614-1012-65-5W4
3Philadelphia6356.5291.01.536-2627-3020-2717-1519-67-86-4L1
4Florida6157.5172.56.033-2728-3023-2515-1513-1210-55-5L1
5New York6058.5083.510.037-2323-3525-2218-1712-95-106-4W1
6Chicago5862.4836.525.030-3028-329-1929-2414-106-94-6W1
7Milwaukee5762.4797.028.031-2526-3715-1523-2811-128-73.7L1
8Arizona5664.4678.538.527-3229-329-1612-1627-228-104-6L3
9Los Angeles5464.4589.546.529-3025-3411-1413-1625-215-136-4W2
10Cincinnati5465.45410.051.033-3121-3412-1421-2914-147-86-4L3
11San Francisco5266.44111.570.525-3327-336-1517-1523-246-125-5W2
12Pittsburgh5168.42913.082.526-3125-3712-1618-3116-145-75-5L1
13Colorado4574.37819.0154.531-3214-4211-1313-2515-276-94-6W1

Elster88
Aug 18 2005 08:26 AM

BUMP

Edgy DC
Aug 18 2005 08:30 AM

Yeah, the plan is to update these after each series. But suffice to know that, in the last three days, the Mets have cut their net deficit off the wildcard to eight, and off the division lead to 13.

Elster88
Aug 18 2005 08:31 AM

My apologies. 2.5 seems much more exciting to me than 3.5, for some reason.

Frayed Knot
Aug 19 2005 09:02 AM

Post-Season Odds - at least according to the folks at [u:694d8f2bc5]Baseball Prospectus[/u:694d8f2bc5] who "played"
the remaining schedule 1 million times and tabulated the outcomes.

[url]http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php[/url]

NL WC Odds:
Astros - 29.5%
Phillies - 19.5%
Marlins - 14.5%
Mets - 11.0%
Braves - 11.0% (they have a 78% chance of winning the division)
Nationals - 9.0%

Additionally, the Mets have a 4% chance of winning the division.

StL missed the playoffs in ~ 528 of those 1,000,000 tries


Current AL WC Odds:
Indians - 28.0% (+ 4.9% of winning the division)
Yanquis - 18.0% (+ 18.9%)
A's - 15.0% (+ 16.0%)
Angels - 12.1% (+ 12.1%)

Edgy DC
Aug 19 2005 09:11 AM

A total shot then of 14.56%. for the Mets.

Benjamin Grimm
Aug 19 2005 09:14 AM

So the Mets have a 15% chance of making the playoffs, and the Yankees have a 63% chance of missing.

That means there's a little better than 9% chance that the Mets are in and the Yankees out.

Interesting. I'll be curious to see how those numbers change in the next couple of weeks. Is this something they plan to update?

Frayed Knot
Aug 19 2005 11:57 AM

I believe that site will update those numbers on at least a
semi-regular basis.

Edgy DC
Aug 20 2005 12:28 PM

I'm supposed to update every series, but it's more fun to do after a win.

Florida, meanwhile has leapfrogged into second in both races.

Chicago trying desperately to sneak back in. Watch 'em.

Pl.EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWEST INTERL10STRK
1Atlanta6953.566--40-2029-3329-2022-1111-147-85-5L2
T2Florida6457.5294.54.536-2728-3023-2515-1516-1210-57-3W3
T2Philadelphia6558.5284.54.538-2827-3022-2817-1619-67-86-4L2
4Washington6458.5255.06.034-2230-3621-2617-1614-1012-65-5L1
5New York6259.5126.512.039-2423-3526-2219-1812-95-105-5W1


Pl.Wild CardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWEST INTERL10STRK
1Houston6557.533--41-2124-3615-1426-2617-97-85-5W1
T2Florida6457.5290.50.536-2728-3023-2515-1516-1210-57-3W3
T2Philadelphia6558.5280.50.538-2827-3022-2817-1619-67-86-4L2
4Washington6458.5251.02.034-2230-3621-2617-1614-1012-65-5L1
5New York6259.5122.55.039-2423-3526-2219-1812-95-105-5W1
6Chicago6062.4925.020.530-3030-329-1930-2415-106-96-4W3
7Milwaukee6063.4885.523.531-2529-3815-1524-2913-128-74-6L1
8Arizona5766.4638.544.527-3230-349-1613-1827-228-103-7L1
9Cincinnati5666.4599.048.035-3221-3412-1421-2916-157-86-4W2
10Los Angeles5566.4559.553.029-3026-3612-1613-1625-215-135-5L1
11San Francisco5368.43811.573.025-3328.356-1518-1723-246-125-5L2
12Pittsburgh5369.43412.078.526-3127-3814-1718-3116-145-76-4W2
13Colorado4577.36920.0174.531-3314-4211-1313-2615-276-92-8L3

Elster88
Aug 20 2005 08:19 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
I'm supposed to update every series, but it's more fun to do after a win.


Oh sure. I go to the trouble of bumping a couple of days ago and get bitch slapped, and now you change your mind.

j/k.

Valadius
Aug 20 2005 09:53 PM

Atlanta, Florida, Houston, and Washington (thankfully) lose.

Metsies and Phillies win.

We're gaining ground, folks.

OlerudOwned
Aug 20 2005 09:58 PM

Slowly but surely, now 2 games back. Though it would be nice to try to get a win by more than one run, I wont push my luck

Edgy DC
Aug 20 2005 10:03 PM

Philadelphia is now your wildcard leader. Mets are two games back and five games back net behind four teams.

I'm leaving town tomorry. I'll try and do one more update afore's I go.

Anybody else willing to take over, be my guestical.

SI Metman
Aug 20 2005 11:35 PM

It's a half game between each of the wild card teams from the Phils down to the Mets.

Valadius
Aug 21 2005 08:16 AM

How bout them apples? Half-games through- it's certainly not unthinkable, but we gotta do some leapfrog.

Elster88
Aug 22 2005 10:53 AM
Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Aug 22 2005 02:26 PM

>>>Anybody else willing to take over, be my guestical.

Will do. I like charts. I'm being quite a thief here. Going to blue to show this is a pirated chart and not an original.

Someone let me know if I screwed up the net games back feature.

Only Atlanta and New York amongst the East teams have above .500 records against the East.

PL.EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Atlanta7054.565--41-2129-3329-2022-1112-157-84-6W1
2Philadelphia6758.5363.53.540-2827-3022-2819-1619-67-87-3W2
3Florida6558.5284.55.537-2828-3023-2515-1517-1310-56-4W1
4Washington6559.5245.0734-2231-3722-2717-1614-1012-66-4W1
5New York6360.5126.51340-2523-3527-2319-1812-95-105-5L1


PL.WildcardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Philadelphia6758.536--40-2827-3022-2819-1619-67-87-3W2
2Houston6658.5320.50.542-2224-3615-1427-2717-97-84-6W1
3Florida6558.5281.01.537-2828-3023-2515-1517-1310-56-4W1
4Washington6559.5241.5334-2231-3722-2717-1614-1012-66-4W1
5New York6360.5123.0940-2523-3527-2319-1812-95-105-5L1
6Milwaukee6164.4886.02431-2530-3915-1525-3013-128-75-5L1
7Chicago6064.4846.52730-3030-349-1930-2415-126-96-4L2
8Arizona5867.4649.044.527-3231-359-1614-1927-228-104-6L1
9Cincinnati5767.4609.548.536-3321-3412-1421-2917-167-85-5W1
10Los Angeles5667.45510.05329-3027-3713-1713-1625-215-136-4L1
11San Francisco5469.43912.07325-3329-366-1519-1823-246-125-5W1
12Pittsburgh5371.42713.589.526-3127-4014-1918-3116-145-75-5L2
13Colorado4777.37919.5161.533-3514-4211-1315-2815-276-93-7W2

Valadius
Aug 22 2005 11:08 AM

So basically we shot ourselves in the foot in interleague play, besides our much-maligned road woes. We're entering make-or-break time here, folks- either we take some damn road games, or we resign ourselves to another missed opportunity.

Elster88
Aug 22 2005 11:19 AM

Valadius wrote:
So basically we shot ourselves in the foot in interleague play, besides our much-maligned road woes.


Combine the two. 1-5 at Oakland and Seattle.

HahnSolo
Aug 22 2005 02:00 PM

One thing that stands out from another team: The Houston road record is at Met-like levels, but I don't much hear the same commentary from the media that they can't play on the road.

And I should know this, but why do the Nationals have 18 interleague games and the rest of the NL East only 15?

Nymr83
Aug 22 2005 02:15 PM

]One thing that stands out from another team: The Houston road record is at Met-like levels, but I don't much hear the same commentary from the media that they can't play on the road.


Because they are winning. Wait until 2 of the NL East teams are ahead of them in the standings and we'll see if the media still isn't bashing their road record. Secondly, it's possible they have improved on the road in the 2nd half, they have certainly improved overall. The Mets on the other hand have had huge road meltdowns lately. And last, but certainly not least, a team playing in NYC will inevitably receive extra media attention and praise/criticism.

seawolf17
Aug 22 2005 02:19 PM

Nymr, I forgot to thank you... I'm honored to have been quoted in your sig.

Valadius
Aug 22 2005 02:23 PM

There are 16 teams in the NL. There are 14 teams in the AL. While 14 NL teams play 14 AL teams, 2 NL teams face each other. I vaguely remember facing Philly during interleague play, and I'm assuming the other teams had an NL series with someone else.

Elster88
Aug 23 2005 06:41 AM

PL.EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Atlanta7154.568--41-2130-3329-2023-1112-157-85-5W2
2Florida6658.5324.54.538-2828-3023-2515-1518-1310-57-3W2
3Philadelphia6759.5324.54.540-2827-3122-2819-1619-77-86-4L1
4Washington6559.5245.57.534-2231-3722-2717-1614-1012-66-4W1
5New York6460.5166.511.540-2524-3527-2319-1813-95-106-4W1


PL.WildcardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Houston6758.536--42-2225-3615-1427-2718-97-84-6W2
2Florida6658.5320.50.538-2828-3023-2515-1518-1310-57-3W2
3Philadelphia6759.5320.50.540-2827-3122-2819-1619-77-86-4L1
4Washington6559.5241.53.534-2231-3722-2717-1614-1012-66-4W1
5New York6460.5162.57.540-2524-3527-2319-1813-95-106-4W1
6Milwaukee6164.4886.02531-2530-3915-1525-3013-128-75-5L1
7Chicago6065.4807.03130-3130-349-2030-2415-126-95-5L3

Elster88
Aug 23 2005 06:46 AM

WildcardL
Houston58
Florida58
Philadelphia59
Washington59
New York60

Elster88
Aug 24 2005 06:56 AM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 24 2005 06:57 AM

Tied Washington!

PL.EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Atlanta7155.563--41-2130-3429-2023-1212-157-85-5L1
2Philadelphia6859.5353.53.540-2828-3122-2819-1620-77-86-4W1
3Florida6659.5284.55.538-2828-3123-2515-1618-1310-57-3L1
T-4New York6560.5205.58.540-2525-3527-2319-1814-95-107-3W2
T-4Washington6560.5205.58.534-2331-3722-2717-1714-1012-65-5L1


PL.WildcardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Philadelphia6859.535--40-2828-3122-2819-1620-77-86-4W1
2Houston6759.5320.50.542-2225-3715-1427-2718-107-84-6L1
3Florida6659.5281.01.538-2828-3123-2515-1618-1310-57-3L1
T-4New York6560.5202.04.540-2525-3527-2319-1814-95-107-3W2
T-4Washington6560.5202.04.534-2331-3722-2717-1714-1012-65-5L1
6Milwaukee6264.4925.52232-2530-3916-1525-3013-128-76-4W1
7Chicago6165.4846.52831-3130-3410-2030-2415-126-95-5W1

Elster88
Aug 24 2005 06:57 AM

One loss seperating the five teams.

WildcardL
Philadelphia59
Houston59
Florida59
New York60
Washington60

Elster88
Aug 25 2005 06:58 AM

PL.EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Atlanta7255.567--41-2131-3429-2024-1212-157-85-5W1
2Philadelphia6959.5393.53.540-2829-3122-2819-1621-77-86-4W2
T-3Florida6660.5245.57.538-2828-3223-2515-1718-1310-56-4L2
T-3New York6660.5245.57.540-2526-3527-2319-1815-95-107-3W3
T-3Washington6660.5245.57.535-2331-3722-2718-1714-1012-65-5W1


PL.WildcardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Philadelphia6959.539--40-2829-3122-2819-1621-77-86-4W2
2Houston6760.5281.51.542-2225-3815-1427-2718-117-84-6L2
T-3Florida6660.5242.02.538-2828-3223-2515-1718-1310-56-4L2
T-3New York6660.5242.02.540-2526-3527-2319-1815-95-107-3W3
T-3Washington6660.5242.02.535-2331-3722-2718-1714-1012-65-5W1
6Milwaukee6364.4965.52033-2530-3917-1525-3013-128-77-3W2

Rotblatt
Aug 25 2005 07:52 AM

Updated Playoff Odds Report from BP

We move all the way to 33.13833%, better than every other team who's NOT leading their division.

Cards at 99.98
Padres at 90.79
Braves at 86.39
Phillies at 30.59
Astros at 25.36
Marlins at 13.63
Nats at 8.36

Folks, what this tells me is that we don't need to keep being heroic, just play the way we've played all season (minus the first 5) and limit our mistakes.

I REALLY hope that our boys come out patient tonight, like they did last night. Work the pitcher, work the count, stay in your game, and get us a win. We all know that whatever his stuff is like tonight, Petey's going to be a gamer, so let's not be overagressive, thinking we own the place . . .

I hat late-night starts. This is going to be a long wait.

Johnny Dickshot
Aug 25 2005 09:23 AM

These late-nite games are killing me too (I passed out of exhaustion in the 8th last night) but Thursday Gay Dames are especially tough on my work sked.

I'm taking tommorry off, tho, and plan to be loaded up on caffeine, beer and maybe crack for 2-nite's game.

Centerfield
Aug 25 2005 10:08 AM

I...plan to be loaded up on caffeine, beer and maybe crack for 2-nite's game.

Cool. Say hi to Dwight...tell him some guys stopped by earlier looking for him.

duan
Aug 25 2005 10:43 AM

The key is the Astros. We play interdivisional stuff virtually all september (except what might be a rather painful trip to St. Louis and the hosting of the Rockies for the final series.

The Astros are the only team we can't help ourselves against.

Lots a big games coming up.

Centerfield
Aug 25 2005 10:58 AM

That three city road trip to St. Louis, Atlanta and Florida is going to be a doozy. Those ten games will make or break or season.

Or not effect it very much at all.

metirish
Aug 25 2005 11:02 AM

It's just great though to be playing August games that count, the last three have been horrible.

metirish
Aug 25 2005 11:02 AM

It's just great though to be playing August games that count, the last three have been horrible.

Rockin' Doc
Aug 25 2005 08:40 PM

metirish - "It's just great though to be playing August games that count, the last three have been horrible."

I was rather fond of the last 3 games. A road sweep is always sweet. The last 3 seasons have definitely sucked.

Dont mind me, I'm just trying to live up to the CPF's collective reputation as a bunch of smart ass, elitist, pricks.

Elster88
Aug 26 2005 07:04 AM

So, how does everyone feel this morning?

PL.EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Atlanta7255.567--41-2131-3429-2024-1212-157-85-5W1
2Philadelphia6959.5393.53.540-2829-3122-2819-1621-77-86-4W2
T-3Florida6760.5285.06.538-2829-3223-2516-1718-1310-56-4W1
T-3New York6760.5285.06.540-2527-3527-2319-1816-95-108-2W4
5Washington6661.5206.010.535-2431-3722-2718-1814-1012-64-6L1


PL.WildcardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Philadelphia6959.539--40-2829-3122-2819-1621-77-86-4W2
T-2Florida6760.5281.51.538-2829-3223-2516-1718-1310-56-4W1
T-2Houston6760.5281.51.542-2225-3815-1427-2718-117-84-6L2
T-2New York6760.5281.51.540-2527-3527-2319-1816-95-108-2W4
5Washington6661.5202.55.535-2431-3722-2718-1814-1012-64-6L1
6Milwaukee6365.4926.02333-2630-3917-1625-3013-128-76-4L1

Benjamin Grimm
Aug 26 2005 07:07 AM

I feel like I'm being deluded into thinking that the Mets have a chance at the playoffs, even though they're now within 1.5 games of a spot, and have fewer teams to pass. I feel like it's all a scam to keep me spending money to see aged veterans on a team that, even if it gets to the playoffs, has no chance of winning. And even if it wins the World Series, has no chance of repeating for the next seven years.

seawolf17
Aug 26 2005 07:11 AM

I feel two things...

One, I feel like you should have put the Mets in the second row, so it looked more impressive.

Two, I feel like a dumbass, because I was just absent-mindedly scanning the columns in the wild card standings, and I saw that two teams had played WAY more games against the NL Central than anybody else, and I thought "Hey, that's strange."

Until I looked to the left. Duh.

Rotblatt
Aug 26 2005 07:35 AM

I feel suspicious.

I mean, we're playing pretty good, fundamental baseball and aren't making too many mistakes right now, but I can't help but wonder when the bottom's going to drop out.

ABG
Aug 26 2005 07:39 AM

Rotblatt wrote:
I feel suspicious.

I mean, we're playing pretty good, fundamental baseball and aren't making too many mistakes right now, but I can't help but wonder when the bottom's going to drop out.

I'm not quiiiite at the point of no return with this team, but I'm rapidly approaching it. 2 outta 3 this weekend, and I'm sunk.

Elster88
Aug 26 2005 07:40 AM

seawolf17 wrote:
One, I feel like you should have put the Mets in the second row, so it looked more impressive.


Alpha-order for ties. They'll have to earn that second row by getting sole possession. Or by changing the team name to the Flushing Mets.

Rotblatt
Aug 26 2005 09:27 AM

Updated Playoff Odds Report from BP

With last night's victory & Houston's loss, we now have better odds to win the wild card than Houston does (24.71653% to 23.60552%)--which we did NOT yesterday, a fact which I omitted from my post. We have a 13.89794% shot to win our division as well, giving us a 38.61447 % shot at the playoffs now.

According to the report, the Phillies are our toughest competitor (29.61984% at playoffs).

1. Cards: 99.99
2. Padres: 92.90
3. Braves: 85.83
4. Mets: 38.61
5. Phillies: 29.62
6. Astros: 23.73
7. Marlins: 15.02
8. Nats: 5.43
. . .
12. Giants: 0.90631

In that other league, the Yankees have a better shot at the division (31%) than they do the wild card (18%), based on the stength of the Indians (41% shot at WC). Despite their struggles, the Sox still have a 68% shot at the division. Oakland gets a 30.8% shot at their division and only a 10% shot at the WC.

I can't remember if this was mentioned already, but BP gets these results by plugging the current record, RS & RA for every team in the league, then simulates the rest of the season a million times.

Neat, huh?

Johnny Dickshot
Aug 26 2005 10:20 AM

Even cooler is seeing the odds rise or fall by 10% or more after a single day. I forget what day it was where I was arguing with Sal on this but less than a week ago, the Met odds were 17% playoffs, <10% for the division IIRC.

Farmer Ted
Aug 26 2005 12:57 PM
Odds

Mental note...while in Vegas in January I put 20 bucks down on 8-1 odds for the Mets to win it all. I could be a lucky weiner.

Willets Point
Aug 26 2005 01:09 PM

Odds don't mean shit. Only wins count.

Farmer Ted
Aug 26 2005 01:14 PM

Odds are that you'll never get that photo from last year's Wrigley game if you can't swing me an email address.

Elster88
Aug 26 2005 11:25 PM

Every team in this post won, except the Braves.

PL.EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Atlanta7256.563--41-2131-3529-2024-1312-157-84-6L1
2Philadelphia7059.5432.52.540-2830-3122-2819-1622-77-86-4W3
3Florida6860.5314.05.538-2830-3223-2517-1718-1310-57-3W2
4New York6860.5314.05.540-2528-3527-2319-1817-95-108-2W5
5Washington6761.5235.09.536-2431-3722-2719-1814-1012-64-6W1


PL.WildcardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Philadelphia7059.543--40-2830-3122-2819-1622-77-86-4W3
T-2Florida6860.5311.51.538-2830-3223-2517-1718-1310-57-3W2
T-2Houston6860.5311.51.542-2226-3815-1427-2719-117-85-5W1
T-2New York6860.5311.51.540-2528-3527-2319-1817-95-108-2W5
5Washington6761.5232.55.536-2431-3722-2719-1814-1012-64-6W1
6Milwaukee6465.4966.02334-2630-3918-1625-3013-128-77-3W1

Edgy DC
Aug 26 2005 11:43 PM

Great job in this thread.

I hope these guys are going after Atlanta. All those division games in September are going to be brutal and bloody. Hearts will be breaking on the Eastern Seaboard every night.

Elster88
Aug 27 2005 10:51 AM

Winning the division would certainly be nice, but let's not forget playoffs is playoffs.

Benjamin Grimm
Aug 27 2005 12:13 PM

One advantage of winning the division is, if the wild card also comes from the East, the Mets would get a first round against San Diego, with home field advantage.

Johnny Dickshot
Aug 27 2005 12:45 PM

Our playoff odds increased by 1% -- we're now a 39% playoff team (22.4% WC + 16.8% division).

The Nats, tho only 1 loss off the pace, have only a 7% playoff shot , BP sez.

Astros 24.5% lead the WC probabilty.

Elster88
Aug 29 2005 06:29 AM

PL.EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Atlanta7456.569--41-2133-3529-2026-1312-157-85-5W2
2Philadelphia7061.5344.54.540-2830-3322-2819-1622-97-85-5L2
3Florida6961.5315.05.538-2831-3323-2518-1818-1310-56-4L1
4New York6862.5236.08.540-2528-3727-2319-1817-115-107-3L2
5Washington6763.5157.012.536-2631-3722-2719-2014-1012-64-6L2


PL.WildcardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Philadelphia7061.534--40-2830-3322-2819-1622-97-85-5L2
2Florida6961.5310.50.538-2831-3323-2518-1818-1310-56-4L1
T-3Houston6862.5231.52.542-2226-4015-1427-2719-137-84-6L2
T-3New York6862.5231.52.540-2528-3727-2319-1817-115-107-3L2
5Washington6763.5152.56.536-2631-3722-2719-2014-1012-64-6L2
6Milwaukee6467.4896.02434-2830-3918-1825-3013-128-75-5L2

Elster88
Aug 30 2005 08:18 AM

Find the standings as of end of day 8/29/05 here:
[url]http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=1104[/url]

_____________________________
This post was made under the posting designation 170) Barry Lyons

Edgy DC
Aug 30 2005 08:26 AM

My "net games back" era is drawing to a close.

Rotblatt
Aug 30 2005 08:42 AM

We remain the odds-on favorite to reach the wild card, according to BP:

25.45862% versus 23.10408% for the Phillies. The Astros check in at 20.41308.

According to their simulations, the average WC winner in the NL won 88 games in total. In order to reach that, we'll have to win 62.5% of our remaining games. So far this August, we've won 60% of our games.

Benjamin Grimm
Aug 30 2005 09:01 AM

I'm looking forward to seeing what the odds will be on Friday morning, after the three games with the Phillies.

They could be a lot better, or a lot worse.

A three-game sweep from the Mets, and September could be a lot of fun.

Elster88
Aug 30 2005 09:07 AM

The SBS is going to give you the beating of your life.

I myself am not part of that organization, but I would be wary if I were you.
_____________________________
This post was made under the posting designation 170) Barry Lyons

Benjamin Grimm
Aug 30 2005 09:11 AM

I have a thick orange hide.

Willets Point
Aug 30 2005 09:16 AM

Yancy Street Gang wrote:

A three-game sweep from the Mets, and September could be a lot of fun.


I remember the Septembers of 1998, 1999, 2000. & 2001 when the Mets started the month flying high, but September ended up being unfun (well 99 & 00, all was well that ended well, but the Mets had divisional title hopes crashed in those years' Septembers).

Elster88
Aug 30 2005 09:18 AM

We're also not really flying high right now.

_____________________________
This post was made under the posting designation 170) Barry Lyons

Willets Point
Aug 30 2005 10:11 AM

Well I was going on Yancy's theory of a possible three-game sweep of the Phillies leading us into September. I think that would mean the Mets have won 9 of their last 12 games which is a pretty good way to start the last month of a season but no guarantee that the last month will continue that success.

Elster88
Aug 30 2005 10:25 AM

WildcardL
Philadelphia61
Florida62
Houston62
New York62
Washington63


_____________________________
This post was made under the posting designation 170) Barry Lyons

Benjamin Grimm
Aug 30 2005 11:07 AM

I've never understood the conventional wisdom that the loss column is more important than the win column.

True, a loss is a game that you can't go back and win.

But a win is a game that you can't go back and lose.

Elster88
Aug 30 2005 11:11 AM

I look at it this way. If we're down one win, and tied in the loss column, we can win the game ourselves and be tied. If we have one extra loss, and are tied in the win column, the other team has to lose. The whole "controlling your own destiny" deal.

_____________________________
This was the last post Elster88 made under the posting designation 170) Barry Lyons. Goodbye, Barry Hairline!

Benjamin Grimm
Aug 30 2005 11:17 AM

That only matters if you're making up a rainout after the season ends.

Really, it's not important who's in first place on August 30 or September 9. It only matters who's in first after everyone's played 162 games. All you have to do is win as many as possible. When it comes to seeing who's eliminated, and in figuring out magic numbers and the like, wins and losses count equally.

Elster88
Aug 30 2005 11:45 AM

I disagree, per the reasoning above. Obviously it gains more importance when you're making up that last game rainout then it does today.
_____________________________
This post was made under the posting designation 169) Joe McEwing

Elster88
Aug 30 2005 08:34 PM
Edited 4 time(s), most recently on Aug 30 2005 08:56 PM

Updating for the Houston game.

PL.EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Atlanta7456.569--41-2133-3529-2026-1312-157-85-5W2
T-2Florida7062.5305539-2931-3323-2519-1918-1310-56-4W1
T-2Philadelphia7062.5305540-2830-3422-2919-1622-97-84-6L3
4New York6962.5275.56.541-2528-3728-2319-1817-115-107-3W1
5Washington6763.5157.012.536-2631-3722-2719-2014-1012-64-6L2


PL.WildcardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
T-1Florida7062.530--39-2931-3323-2519-1918-1310-56-4W1
T-1Philadelphia7062.530--40-2830-3422-2919-1622-97-85-5L3
T-3Houston6962.5270.5143-2226-4015-1428-2719-137-84-6W1
T-3New York6962.5270.5141-2528-3728-2319-1817-115-107-3W1
5Washington6763.5152.0736-2631-3722-2719-2014-1012-64-6L2


Shower and bed time. Someone take care of this after Atlanta/Washington is done?

Edgy DC
Aug 30 2005 08:40 PM

A game.

Off.

The wildcard.

Delgado was so wrong.

SI Metman
Aug 30 2005 10:44 PM

tied in the loss column is the most important stat, especially since that extra game is against the Rockies (or Cardinals depending how you look at it).

Edgy DC
Aug 30 2005 10:46 PM

All games present and accounted for.

PL.EastWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
1Atlanta7457.569--41-2233-3529-2126-1312-157-85-5L1
T-2Florida7062.5304.54.539-2931-3323-2519-1918-1310-56-4W1
T-2Philadelphia7062.5304.54.540-2830-3422-2919-1622-97-84-6L3
4New York6962.5275.56.041-2528-3728-2319-1817-115-107-3W1
5Washington6863.5196.010.036-2631-3722-2719-2014-1012-64-6W1


PL.WildcardWLPCTGBNGBHOMEROADEASTCENTWESTINTERL10STRK
T-1Florida7062.530--39-2931-3323-2519-1918-1310-56-4W1
T-1Philadelphia7062.530--40-2830-3422-2919-1622-97-85-5L3
T-3Houston6962.5270.5143-2226-4015-1428-2719-137-84-6W1
T-3New York6962.5270.5141-2528-3728-2319-1817-115-107-3W1
5Washington6863.5191.5536-2632-3723-2719-2014-1012-64-6W1

Nymr83
Aug 30 2005 10:47 PM

Delgado was a fool. The only thing making the Marlins as good as the Mets right now IS Delgado. If Delgado had come here and Seo had stayed up all year (or Heilman had been left in, or anything else happened to get friggin Ishii gone sooner) the Mets would probably be 3 or 4 up in the wildcard race.

Rotblatt
Aug 31 2005 08:33 AM

Playoff Odds Reports: Updated 8/30/05 from BP

We gain a WC percentage point with our win over the Phillies, who drop almost 7%. The 'stros gain more, though, with an increase of over 3%.

WC
Mets: 24.45012
Astros: 23.89882
Phillies: 16.23574

In the race for the division, however, we gained a few points, checking in at 10.78635 versus 76.00180 for the Braves.

Vic Sage
Aug 31 2005 08:38 AM

somebody tell Bret the Red Sox Fan that he is absolutely forbidden to enjoy a Mets WC race in september.

Willets Point
Aug 31 2005 09:37 AM

Vic Sage wrote:
somebody tell Bret the Red Sox Fan that he is absolutely forbidden to enjoy a Mets WC race in september.


Why don't you tell him yourself if it's such a big deal to you?

Rotblatt
Aug 31 2005 09:39 AM

Oh, and Delgado's a lying liar who lies. In my completely uninformed opinion, he went to Florida because he didn't want to share the spotlight with Beltran. The "better chance to win" thing was because he didn't want to sound like an egotistical fucktard.

Phtooey on Delgado. He makes me hate the Marlins all over again, whom I had a soft spot for after they crushed the MFY in the World Series. And my hatred has extended beyond just Delgado too--Beckett is a punk with an inflated sense of self importance.

I hope the Marlins wind up in the NL East cellar for the next four years, preventing a new stadium from happening, and that Delgado's contract becomes an albatross that prevents them from locking up Cabrera & Willis (who miraculously wind up on a team NOT the Yankees).

OlerudOwned
Aug 31 2005 09:44 AM

Rotblatt wrote:
I hope the Marlins wind up in the NL East cellar for the next four years, preventing a new stadium from happening, and that Delgado's contract becomes an albatross that prevents them from locking up Cabrera & Willis (who miraculously wind up on a team NOT the Yankees).


One thing I learned from MVP Baseball. Miguel Cabrera looks great in a Met uniform

Vic Sage
Aug 31 2005 09:47 AM

]Why don't you tell him yourself if it's such a big deal to you


because i don't want to be a pompous prick, you pompous prick.

Elster88
Sep 01 2005 08:11 AM

Ugh. I'll post after the afternoon game.

This post was made under the posting designation 167) Braden Looper

Rotblatt
Sep 02 2005 07:47 AM

Time to take our medicine, fellow Mets fans.

We drop to a 14.64839% shot at the WC & 4.84854% at the division. The Phillies move to 25.96533 for the WC & 11.09656 for the division, but the Astros are the real winners: 33.16950 for the WC.

We've got some serious ground to cover before we're back in it, and frankly, I'm not sure we've got the goods. Replacing Cairo/Matsui with pretty much anyone would probably help, as would shaking up our batting order. Getting Mientkiewicz back should help, too, but I'm not sure if he'll get much playing time.

Edgy DC
Sep 02 2005 07:49 AM

I don't like my medicine.

seawolf17
Sep 02 2005 08:03 AM

All we have to do is go 7-3 on this trip, and we're right back in this thing.

Elster88
Sep 08 2005 09:03 AM

I don't feel like posting the standings anymore.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 161) Johnny Lewis