THE CRANE POOL FORUM thecranepool.net (.com)


Forum Home

Master Index of Archived Threads


CaBLAMeron

Rotblatt
Jul 14 2005 11:44 AM

Generally speaking, Cameron's line doesn't seem all that inflated to me. When we first signed him, a couple writers talked about how his stats were severely depressed by playing at SAFECO and they expected Cam's numbers to get better, even playing at Shea.

Check out Cam's splits (red indicates highs, blue lows)

2001 (SEA) (.832 OPS overall)
H: .220/.310/.359/.669
A: =red].310/=red].392/=red].591/=red].982

Probably the best CF in the league away from SAFECO and one of the worst in it.

2002 (SEA) (.782 OPS overall)
H: .218/.334/.370/.705
A: .258/.345/.509/.853

Middling CF at home, one of the best away.

2003 (SEA) (.774 OPS overall)
H: .235/.329/.429/.758
A: .268/.357/.432/.789

Average on both counts.

2004 (NYN) (.798 OPS overall)
H: .228/.309/.444/.753
A: .234/.329/.512/.841

Average at home, one of the best away

2005 (NYN) (.879 OPS overall)
H: =red].255/=red].336/=red].462/=red].798
A: .299/.389/.577/.967

Above average at home, with his best H splits across the board since Cincinnati (.825 OPS overall that year), and the best CF in baseball away.

In 2001, Cam hit even better away from SAFECO than he is from Shea so far this year, and he managed to sustain it all year. The difference is that he's posting solid numbers at home for the first time in a while.

The fact that he is so affected by pitcher's parks (despite a down year in 2003) suggests that he may very well be able to sustain around his current away pace, and if he really has adjusted to Shea, we might be in for continued above-average RF production from Cam.

Counting against him, however, is the fact that his June (.632 OPS--13 games at H, 5 A) & July so far (.716 OPS--3 H, 7 A--but 4 of those at RFK, a pitcher's park) have been bad and his overall stats are floated by his monster May (1.162 OPS--11 H, 12 A). And, of course, 203 AB is a pretty small sample size.

The moral of this story? If Cameron played half his games in a hitter's park, he'd probably have HOF numbers, and if he played in an average park, he'd probably be making Beltran money right now. AND I think he's a nifty player who might be pretty good for us down the road.

Or good trade bait, although with all the CF swaps that have already happened, there may not be much of a market for him outside of the Yankees

Edgy DC
Jul 14 2005 12:59 PM

Excellent analysis. I don't really know how to respond. I suspect there must be wishful thinking in there. As much as I'm persuaded, I resist in recognition of my own wishful thinking.

It'll be interesting to see which way the new park plays here in DC. As it is, Philadelphia's is the only park in the division that favors hitters, and that's only slightly. The Mets, of course, play 107 games in the division's ballparks every year. Add the pitcher-favoring ballpark of their designated rival, and that's 110

smg58
Jul 15 2005 11:08 AM

It's always critical to factor in the ballpark when evaluating a player. Adam Dunn's road OPS, both for this season and since 2002, hovers around .840, so it would be naive to expect more than that if he came here. Raul Ibanez could give a team that much, but something tells me the Mariners would get a lot less for him than the Reds would get for Dunn.

Getting back to Cameron, the Mets couldn't have expected more from him offensively than they've gotten, although I do think his OPS for the year will wind up closer to .800 than .900. What Rottblatt does show is that the Mets do not need to trade him, and should absolutely demand value if somebody asks for him.

Rotblatt
Jul 24 2005 10:08 AM

I had read a post at SoSH (before they locked out non-member lurkers, the elitist prigs) where a dude who saw a Mets game said Beltran's play of CF clearly pissed off Cameron. He said Cameron kept yelling at Beltran to reposition himself before hitters, who ignored him, and when hits fell in, Cameron shook his head in disdain.

Sounded possible but kind of shaky to me, although I could certainly see someone who takes as much pride in his defense getting pissy at someone doing it differently . . . I mostly ignored it, but then I read this quote in the Daily News:

]The mid-afternoon start and the sun directly over home plate made his life miserable in the early innings. Beltran knew it would. He turned to Cliff Floyd in left and told him to help out, if he could. Mike Cameron in right was skeptical about any such problems.

"The sun has been there for 500, 600 years . . ." Cameron said, proving himself no great astronomer.


http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/story/330974p-282886c.html

Why wouldn't he back Beltran up a bit there or just say something noncommittal?

I think Cameron's resigned himself to finishing out the year with us, but can't wait to move to a new team as a CF. I suppose this is what A-Rod felt like when he moved to 3B for Captain Intangibles. Expect A-Rod's a better offensive AND defense player than Jeter. Hah! The Yankees are even bigger retards than we are . . .

Anyway, my point is that it's a shame, especially since Cameron's been so much better all around than Beltran this season. I mean, imagine where we'd be if we had Cam in CF & Guerrero in right. An upgrade defensively and serious upgrade offensively (at least so far). Or Delgado at first. Hell, for Beltran's money, we could have had both . . .

I still think that Beltran will rebound for a nice second half and be a good player for us over the next six years, but in the short term, his signing has hurt us.

Johnny Dickshot
Jul 24 2005 10:21 AM

You also figure Bondy had that column half-written before Beltran spoiled it with a GW single.

Granted he's an idiot but last night on BB2N, Jeff Brantley blasted Beltran, suggesting that prior teammates feel he only played hard when he felt like it.

I think pushing Cameron aside was rather unnecessary, but perhaps there's an argument to be made that now that they are both in the fold, Cameron is also the better RF than Beltran might make. Beltran's play in CF is not as strong but has hardly been a drawback.

I'm all for trading Cameron to the team that pays us the premium that a great defensive CF/good runner/fair hitter with pop offers and not a second sooner.

Oh, I also say that the short term has been a slight disappointment with Beltran, but where we gotta watch our ass is the long term.

Bret Sabermetric
Jul 24 2005 10:43 AM

Johnny Dickshot wrote:
I'm all for trading Cameron to the team that pays us the premium that a great defensive CF/good runner/fair hitter with pop offers and not a second sooner.


Oh, come on. You know the Mets can do better than just 'the premium' if they hold out long enough. I don't want them to make any deal unless the other team gives up at least twice as much talent as they're getting back. And by 'talent,' I don't mean potential talent, I mean if we trade a 25 HR-a-year guy, I want two 25-HR a year guys back, or one 50-HR-a-year guy. Fair's fair.

Johnny Dickshot
Jul 24 2005 10:59 AM

Now you are being a dick.

Rockin' Doc
Jul 24 2005 01:19 PM

Yup.

duan
Jul 24 2005 02:05 PM

the thing is (and I talked about this with edgy before) seeing as we're committed to Beltran for 7 years, it makes sense to keep him in CF, the idea being that once someone starts to move along the defensive specturm, it might be harder for them to reverse course after 2/3 years.

It's such a pity that the yankees are the 'contenders' with the biggest need for a CF - I just don't see them having anything we want.

Elster88
Jul 24 2005 03:16 PM

Cameron and Beltran were smiling and giggling and pointing at each other after Beltran caught the first out near the track in near straightaway ceneter in the top of the seventh.

martin
Jul 24 2005 04:20 PM

Bret Sabermetric wrote:

Oh, come on. You know the Mets can do better than just 'the premium' if they hold out long enough. I don't want them to make any deal unless the other team gives up at least twice as much talent as they're getting back. And by 'talent,' I don't mean potential talent, I mean if we trade a 25 HR-a-year guy, I want two 25-HR a year guys back, or one 50-HR-a-year guy. Fair's fair.


when i read posts by this guy i kinda droop my head in disappointment.

pointless.

Rotblatt
Jul 24 2005 06:21 PM

Elster88 wrote:
Cameron and Beltran were smiling and giggling and pointing at each other after Beltran caught the first out near the track in near straightaway ceneter in the top of the seventh.


I saw that too. It made me happy. Or maybe what made me happy was the stomping we gave the Dodgers.

I still think that Cameron's gone after this season, but maybe I'm wrong that there's some tension there.

Could just be good-natured ribbing. There seems to be a lot of that on our club . . .

Bret Sabermetric
Jul 24 2005 07:03 PM

Johnny Dickshot wrote:
Now you are being a dick.


Beg to differ, Johnny. I'm making via exaggeration a serious and valid point about the Mets and Mets fans: they over-value their own properties so much that a fair deal rarely gets made because the Mets ask too much. I've gone over and over my complaint that they asked too much at every turn for Piazza, leaving them stuck with an awful fielding, average hitting, way overpaid catcher for the last few years, so I won't use that as today's example. Let's see --we're about due for an update on how Glavine is doing relative to Derek Lowe.

If you'll remember, last year around this time, some poster (I forget who) said that if the Mets were offered Lowe even up for Glavine, they should of course refuse because (and I think I'm quoting accurately here) Glavine would be the better pitcher for the rest of 2004 and for all of 2005. Well, we all know how 2004 turned out for Glavine and for Lowe, but so far this year, as of this morning, ESPN has Lowe ranked 29th in NL ERA (4.04), with 131.1 IP and Glavine ranked 40th in ERA (4.62) with 115 IP. So much for the clear superiority there.

My point is not to excoriate this hapless Mets' fan who issued the firm and confident prediction that the better pitcher would be Glavine rather than Lowe, nor to remind you that most of the CPF would gladly trade Glavine for Job Lowe this season, but to say that if you're holding out for a fair premium for Cameron, the rest of the league might not see a fair premium the same way you would, or the Mets would. You may be over-valuing Cameron's worth, as you overvalued Glavine's last year (unless I'm forgetting your support in the Glavine/Lowe argument, in which case I apologize deeply) and Piazza's the year before, and like those non-deals, you may be leaving the Mets with what they have, which IMO isn't very much.

Or maybe you're right and I'm simply a dick, in which case I apologize again. Also to Rockin' Doc.

Not to Martin, though. I don't know who he is, but if I make him feel ashamed, I then apologize for being alive.

Johnny Dickshot
Jul 24 2005 07:22 PM

Beg to differ, Johnny. I'm making via exaggeration a serious and valid point about the Mets and Mets fans

Well ya know what? We're not talking about how you feel about Met fans, I''m trying to talk about Mike Cameron and it's gotten to the point at which your insertion of an exaggerated example to illustrate the same tired point or two, usually with a derisive and unprovoked swipe at someone here, has gotten to the point at which it's killing conversation here, and I've put with enough of it.

Go make a "serious point via exaggeration" in your own thread. If you have something relevant to add to what we're discussing here, add it, if not kindly don't.

I'm serious. Hijacking these conversations for the purpose of re-introducing the same old argument you've already infected several other threads, and picking a fight in every one of them, is being a dick.

Bret Sabermetric
Jul 24 2005 07:42 PM

Or, better yet, maybe I should just go fuck myself, and post only in threads that I've started myself, helpfully labelled: "DANGER: THREAD INFECTED BY DISRUPTIVE ANTI-METS FUCKTARD." I think everyone would be much happier if I just did that.

Then you could spout your generalized proposals without fear of any disagreement. You could get a lot of posts telling you "Yeah, Johnny. I agree." "Me, too." "I'm with you on this one, Johnny."

My serious point [u:e77ee39c2f]was[/u:e77ee39c2f] about Mike Cameron, and I think you know that. I was saying that maybe you have to be more realistic about what Cameron is worth if you want to get a deal done. No one else will tell you that, just me.

Unless you are being realistic. I can't tell from your post, which spoke merely of a 'fair premium.' Which is what?

I'd like to hear your idea of which player(s) you think a fair premium for him, and the previous post was an attempt to get you to propose specific players. But if you're simply saying that the Mets should make the best deal they can for themselves, I can't imagine anyone disagreeing with that truism. The question is, what do you think is their best deal? And how realistic is it?

Johnny Dickshot
Jul 24 2005 10:25 PM

Back to MC -- yeah, what I meant was, as a center fielder with legs, a pretty good bat and a great glove, he's a rather rare commodity, and the were the Mets to trade him, it shouldn't be as an OK right fielder, but a very good center fielder. It's a rarer thing, i.e.: More valuable. Worth a premium, as it were.

IOW, for a team like the Yankees who badly profess to need a CF, ask for Matsui. A better offensive player, but who cannot fill the CF need for them, etc etc.

Before we were interrupted, that was the point.

Thanks for starting your own thread.