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Sheffield who?

Spacemans Bong
Jun 29 2005 09:52 PM

Dunn's available according to Rosenthal's Inside Dish.

I want, I want!

Rotblatt
Jun 30 2005 10:13 AM

You beat me too the punch, Bong!

Here's the link: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=insidedishredsareshoppin&prov=tsn&type=lgns

An excerpt:

]The Reds will trade outfielder Adam Dunn only if they receive a top young pitcher in return. Few teams will be willing to part with a potential Josh Beckett or Kerry Wood, but if the Reds play this right, they could make a franchise-altering deal.

Dunn, 25, isn't a free agent until after the '07 season, so his value might be at its peak. Any team that acquires him would get two-plus seasons of his prodigious power, albeit at arbitration-inflated increases from his current salary of $4.6 million.

Dunn's rising salary figures to scare off teams like the low-revenue A's and budget-conscious Braves, but the flip side is this: Young power hitters are in even shorter supply than young power pitchers, making sluggers like Dunn an increasingly rare commodity.


Petit for Dunn? I'd do that. I'd throw in one of our other youngish pitchers too--Seo, Heilman or Ishii. Petit's value is sky-high, Dunn is a young monster with better numbers than Sheff this year, and he can play first base. If we decided to move Cameron for pitching or whatever, we throw Dunn into right and leave Daubach/Mientkiewicz at 1B.

A clear offensive upgrade for the next two years, and we could afford to sign him to a longer contract.

Let's get on the horn, Omar!!!

Frayed Knot
Jun 30 2005 10:36 AM

I suspect "top young pitcher" means someone who is a top, or approaching being a top, pitcher NOW!!!! - as opposed to someone like Petit who might be in the majors in a year or 2 and hopefully wil become a top pitcher in 3 or 4.

In other words, I'm not so sure that'll get it done.

TheOldMole
Jun 30 2005 10:40 AM

Zambrano's a top young pitcher now.

When does Trachsel return?

seawolf17
Jun 30 2005 10:41 AM

Start Heilman, let him get a handful of solid games under his belt, then trade him and Diaz for Dunn.

Edgy DC
Jun 30 2005 10:45 AM

Yeah, good plan, Nicely-Nicely.

Then we'll count all the cheese cakes and bet Sky on how many cheese cakes have been sold.

Centerfield
Jun 30 2005 10:46 AM

At the same time, I don't see any teams with good, young pitchers looking to unload them for anyone, much less a high-strikeout, low BA all-or-nothing guy like Dunn.

If that package doesn't get it done, I'd pass.

ABG
Jun 30 2005 10:50 AM

I would certainly trade Petit or Humber and whatever else it took to get Dunn. He's a monster.

Edgy DC
Jun 30 2005 10:51 AM

Good to see you, Bart.

Any interest in joinging some Crane Poolers at my home on Sunday or at the Bobby on Monday?

seawolf17
Jun 30 2005 10:52 AM

Edgy DC wrote:
Yeah, good plan, Nicely-Nicely.

Then we'll count all the cheese cakes and bet Sky on how many cheese cakes have been sold.


Huh?!? Edgy, you have to stop smoking those funny-smelling cigarettes so early in the morning.

metirish
Jun 30 2005 10:58 AM

I heard somewhere that Dunn's September numbers are awful, any truth to that.

seawolf17
Jun 30 2005 11:02 AM

2002-2005:

APRIL (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
.286 .449 .621 1.070

MAY
.238 .376 .495 .871

JUNE
.267 .399 .547 .946

JULY
.267 .411 .512 .923

AUGUST
.204 .325 .432 .757

SEPTEMBER
.208 .326 .366 .692

Looks like he slows down over the course of the year, then completely falls off the map after the All-Star Break. Interesting.

Edgy DC
Jun 30 2005 11:04 AM

Well, the less roundabout way of expressing my point is that there are huge stretchy logical assumptions in that plan.

Rotblatt
Jun 30 2005 11:38 AM

Cincinatti's out of the running. It'd be really hard to trade Dunn for a young, major-league ready ace by the trading deadline, since any young ace on the market will draw so much interest from contenders. Jesus, look what we gave up for Zambrano, who's never been an ace. Dunn, as good as he is, probably won't cut it, and his price will scare off the smaller-market players who are out of contention.

I suppose Florida could trade Burnett to the Reds for Dunn, but that would be a really, really expensive 1/2 year rental. Burnett's likely to get Pavano/Wright money in the offseason, and I can't imagine Cincinatti would be willing to do that.

No, I'm pretty sure they're looking for young pitchers who they can control for a while. Petit's one of the best pitching prospects out there, and I could see us landing Dunn with a package including him.

I said this a few months ago, but I think it remains true--we're killing the trade value of Heilman and Seo by keeping them out of our rotation. Seo especially. Which is fine if we're planning on trading Glavine &/or Ishii, but neither of them is going to help us get a Dunn . . .

We'd better be trading at least one of our pitchers before the deadline. There's practically nothing out there on the market, and we could make a killing even on mediocre talent--or decent talent with question marks, ala Ishii, Seo & Heilman.

Sandgnat
Jun 30 2005 11:50 AM
Fugue for Tinhorns

Guys and Dolls references in the pool?

Adam Dunn is a nice power hitter, check that, a really good power hitter, but I think some of you need to temper your admiration of this guy. He is a little too Pete Incaviglia for me.

smg58
Jun 30 2005 12:05 PM

Dunn is a low BA, high K power hitter whose HR totals are inflated by the little league field he plays his home games in. Bring him here and he'd be nothing. I bet we could get Sean Casey and Ryan Freel for half the price they'd ask for Dunn, and we'd be a better team for it. The Mets lineup needs .300 hitters and high OBP guys more than it needs one-dimensional power hitters.

Edgy DC
Jun 30 2005 12:11 PM

Well said.

If pressed, I'd say the lack of baserunners is the Mets top problem this year.

seawolf17
Jun 30 2005 12:15 PM

And Dunn has a career OBP of .382.

Dunn isn't Dave Kingman; he's Reggie Jackson. I'd love to see him in a Mets uni.

Sandgnat
Jun 30 2005 12:17 PM

]and high OBP guys more than it needs one-dimensional power hitters.


Adam Dunn's 3 year average OBP is higher then both Casey and Freel.

Rotblatt
Jun 30 2005 12:21 PM

]Dunn is a low BA, high K power hitter whose HR totals are inflated by the little league field he plays his home games in. Bring him here and he'd be nothing. I bet we could get Sean Casey and Ryan Freel for half the price they'd ask for Dunn, and we'd be a better team for it. The Mets lineup needs .300 hitters and high OBP guys more than it needs one-dimensional power hitters.


You want high OBP guys? Dunn is your man. His career OBP is .382. He was 3rd in the league in walks in 2002 and 6th last year. Dunn is way more than a one-dimensional power hitter. He gets on base, hits for power, and has decent speed.

As for his splits:

His career line at Shea in 49 AB: .265 AVG/.333 OBP/.531 SLG/.864 OPS, with 3 HR. That's pretty darn good for a pitcher's park.

He has definitely been helped by playing half his games in Cincinnatti, but his career OPS away is still .866, which is pretty darn good.

Even more than that is that he's so young. His best years are still ahead of him.

As for the Pete Incaviglia reference, Dunn walks waaay more than Pete ever did. So much more, in fact, that Dunn already has more walks in his 5 years than Incaviglia did in his entire 12-year career.

Dunn's a special player, IMO, and he could be just what this team needs over the next few year.

Sandgnat
Jun 30 2005 12:29 PM

]As for the Pete Incaviglia reference, Dunn walks waaay more than Pete ever did. So much more, in fact, that Dunn already has more walks in his 5 years than Incaviglia did in his entire 12-year career.


They have similar numbers overall if you compare their first four seasons. Yes, Dunn walks more. Thank you for pointing out that one stat.

ABG
Jun 30 2005 12:31 PM

]Good to see you, Bart.

Any interest in joinging some Crane Poolers at my home on Sunday or at the Bobby on Monday?

If I can stay in DC long enough, I was planning on heading to the game Monday. Where are you all sitting?

Can't make Sunday unfortunately--looks like I have to spend some qt with the girlfriend's family.

Edgy DC
Jun 30 2005 12:59 PM

If I recall ScarletKnight's instructions, we'll be in 508, underneath the upper press box. Look for Kasey as he appears in the picture. Maybe I'll wear my orange pants.

Anybody want to post a group picture for Bartman?

We're also working on finding out a place to meet and tailgate.

seawolf17
Jun 30 2005 01:11 PM

Make it happen, Omar.

smg58
Jun 30 2005 09:59 PM

He does draw walks, and that's absolutely an asset, but a big part of the Mets' offensive problems the last two years has been the lack of timely hits, especially with guys on third and less than two outs. I don't see how Dunn would change that. Realistically, you'd get .240 and 30 HR here -- in other words, Cameron from last year, with more walks but no SB and less defense. Would you give up Petit for that? My point in bringing up Casey and Freel is that they're likely to be undervalued, especially playing in a homer-happy park like Cincinnati, while Dunn is overvalued. I'm not sure how the Reds feel about Freel, but with Casey they would probably be happy if we took his whole contract for the rest of this year and next.

Rotblatt
Jul 01 2005 12:15 AM

I think Dunn's the undervalued one, because everyone's hung up on batting average and still don't appreciate the ability to get on base.

I mean, you're right in that Dunn won't hit a lot of sac flies and won't advance a lot of runners (although he does have good speed--or at least ability to steal bases--for a guy his size. He had almost 20 SB in 2002, I think.) but I really don't think that's been our problem. I would say our #1 problem has been inability to get on base. I suppose there are other high OBP guys we could go after (like Rickey!) but Dunn's unique in that he's also so damn powerful. And so damn young.

This is a guy who hit .304 in the minors, so it's not like it's impossible for him to also hit for a high average. Now think about that for a second--Dunn hitting .280, with his ability to get on base and hit home runs--it boggles the mind.

The boy's good now and he's got the potential to be better. Enough potential, in my mind, to warrant giving up a Petit or two to get him.

Rotblatt
Jul 01 2005 12:19 AM

Oh, and because I was curious:

Dunn with RISP

first the bad:

.189 AVG, 20 K in 53 AB

Now the good:

.443 OBP, 22 BB, 4 HR, .877 OPS

The three true outcomes are strong with this one . . .