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Building Our World Championship Team

Valadius
Oct 09 2005 04:52 PM

Have you ever had a gut feeling that someone belongs somewhere? Have you ever tried to see into the future of the Mets, trying to figure out who will be here when we win our next World Series?

I've had a couple of flashes of this feeling. It feels like putting a stone puzzle piece in the right place. Here's who I've felt this way about, which has been a little strange at times even for me:

David Wright (the cornerstone at the hot corner)
Jose Reyes (although something tells me we trade him at some point)
Carlos Beltran (well, maybe just because we're stuck with him)
Mike Jacobs (me being there for his debut home run felt like an omen)
Heath Bell (I don't know why, but he'll be there)
Aaron Heilman (he'll still be here)
Juan Padilla (Shades in the bullpen)
Willie Randolph (this was the weirdest one, I see him at least taking us to the World Series)
Omar Minaya (though he might go in about 4-5 years)

But enough about sixth sense rubbish. What prompted this was a stat concerning Mike Jacobs. Now I don't know how Yahoo Sports does their fantasy rankings, but I happened to look under Season Average for first basemen, and here's how the rankings looked:

Derrek Lee
Albert Pujols
Mike Jacobs
Mark Teixeira
David Ortiz
Travis Hafner

If Mike Jacobs is in THAT kind of company, I don't want to hear another word about Paul Konerko.

Rockin' Doc
Oct 09 2005 05:23 PM

It's definitely premature to be putting Jacobs in the company of such established major league hitters. I certainly hope that Jacobs will develop into such a hitter, but at this point he has had all of 100 major league at bats in his career.

I still think that Jacob's greatest value to the Mets would be as a catcher, assuming he can play it to a respectable level defensively. If the Mets are convinced that he can't handle the catcher position, then I have no problem giving him a shot at first base, as long as management has a viable back up plan. Cairo and Woodward as alternatives at first base would certainly not suffice as a back up plan.

Valadius
Oct 09 2005 05:27 PM

Cairo should be jettisoned immediately. We'll get a backup - oh wait, we could bring up Daubach and we're set. Marlon Anderson could fill Cairo's duties.

OlerudOwned
Oct 09 2005 06:04 PM

If you have a lump of money that could go to Furcal or Konerko, where do you want it?

Edgy DC
Oct 09 2005 06:23 PM

Fantasy rankings cut no ice with me.

Valadius
Oct 09 2005 06:28 PM

Well I don't know HOW they did it, except that they were made using real statistics. Something to do with home runs per game, RBI per game, all that.

Problem is, I don't know how they put those stats together.

Nymr83
Oct 09 2005 07:49 PM

the problem with yahoo rankings, and any other fantasy rankings, are that they are normally tailored specifically to the standard 4x4 and 5x5 fantasy leagues. the rankings only rank these players according to their performance in those categories, a guy could have numbers like these-
.260, 20, 80 and not look so hot in the yahoo rankings....until you realize that he had 50 doubles and a .370 OBP....i'd look first to things like OPS+, OPS by position rather than rankings that are designed for fantasy baseball

Rockin' Doc
Oct 09 2005 08:53 PM

I agree that basing rankings on "fantasy" baseball stats is rather suspect.

That is why Jacobs (who I really like) gets lumped in with Albert Pujols, Derrick Lee, Mark Texiera, and David Ortiz. Jacobs had a good few weeks, but he only had 100 at bats and his overall production for the season is but a fraction of the others.

smg58
Oct 09 2005 10:21 PM

OlerudOwned wrote:
If you have a lump of money that could go to Furcal or Konerko, where do you want it?


Hmm. The concern for me with Konerko is that he'd be moving from a park that is quite generous to righty power hitters to one that is not so generous. I could see him giving us numbers like we got from Floyd this year, which is nothing to sneeze at, but we'd have to win a bidding war with at least the Yankees and the Red Sox to get him, and it could wind up like Beltran where even the best case scenario is worth less than we pay to sign him.

Furcal could easily command what Renteria got (4 years, $40M). Pricey, and we may also have to compete with Boston for him assuming Furcal would play second, but I'd lean more towards him on the assumption that he and one of the other first base options could provide more offense for less total money than Konerko and any other second base option.

DocTee
Oct 09 2005 11:58 PM

I can almost see MFY fans having this discussion fifteen years ago-- but with Mike Pagliarullo, Dan Pasqua and a 1B HR machine named Kevin Mass leading the resurgence--

while Jacobs is a nice story, let's not get overly optimistic! I still want a legitimate major league tested bat at 1B

Elster88
Oct 10 2005 10:30 AM

DocTee wrote:
I can almost see MFY fans having this discussion fifteen years ago-- but with Mike Pagliarullo, Dan Pasqua and a 1B HR machine named Kevin Mass leading the resurgence--

while Jacobs is a nice story, let's not get overly optimistic! I still want a legitimate major league tested bat at 1B


100% approval of this quote. As I'm sure everyone knows, the only three hitters in history to hit as many or more home runs in their first 90 at-bats as Jacobs are Shane Spencer, Kevin Maas, and Benny Agbayani.

smg58
Oct 10 2005 12:25 PM

I agree too. I don't think we have seen enough AB's to judge Victor Diaz, much less Jacobs. If Jacobs can field as a catcher at all, he'd be less of a risk there than at first base. Still, I do think he's earned the right to at least compete for a starting spot.

Spacemans Bong
Oct 10 2005 12:35 PM

Get a real bat for 1B, a decent bat who can field for 2B (Bellhorn on a mL deal?), and some bullpen strength.

Jacobs is nice, but let's not put him at 1B, and then get caught with our pants down if he falls back to earth.

Furthermore, it is entirely too early to give up on Carlos Beltran, and doing so is very sports talk radio esque.

Johnny Dickshot
Oct 10 2005 01:31 PM

A guy could do worse than turn into Benny Agbayani, who reached base in the 370s and OPS+ed in the 125 range for a couple of years. And Shane Spencer probably threw away the makings of a better career with his drinking.

The one thing you have to remember about Jacobs is that he ranked about as good or better than all of these Agbayanis, Phillipses and Maases but at a younger age in the minors, and is debuting 2 years younger than most of them too.

He got probably 100 fewer ABs than we'd like for a real test of his abilities, and if he can hit LHP we don't know yet, but if the search for the next experienced and proven 1Bman (let's say, uh... Mo Vaughn...) becomes too expensive I wouldn't have any fear using Jacobs and a right-handed hitter (Diaz?) together as an economical first base platoon.

heep
Oct 10 2005 04:32 PM

Agreed - I could live with Jacobs/Diaz platoon.

I can see Jacobs swinging from C to 1b next year.

FYI - Milledge is off to a hot start in the AFL hitting over 420. You can see his interview on the AFL official website.

If the Mets hold onto Floyd, Milledge could fit in nicely as an internal solution after he leaves.

What is the deal with Pelfrey by the way?

Elster88
Oct 10 2005 04:45 PM

Johnny Dickshot wrote:
A guy could do worse than turn into Benny Agbayani, who reached base in the 370s and OPS+ed in the 125 range for a couple of years. And Shane Spencer probably threw away the makings of a better career with his drinking.

The one thing you have to remember about Jacobs is that he ranked about as good or better than all of these Agbayanis, Phillipses and Maases but at a younger age in the minors, and is debuting 2 years younger than most of them too.

He got probably 100 fewer ABs than we'd like for a real test of his abilities, and if he can hit LHP we don't know yet, but if the search for the next experienced and proven 1Bman (let's say, uh... Mo Vaughn...) becomes too expensive I wouldn't have any fear using Jacobs and a right-handed hitter (Diaz?) together as an economical first base platoon.


I agree with all of this. My only point was that he shouldn't be penciled into the lineup for the next 15 years just yet.

Edgy DC
Oct 10 2005 08:26 PM

]I wouldn't have any fear using Jacobs and a right-handed hitter (Diaz?) together as an economical first base platoon.


The Braves seem to have made some hay in recent years by using Julio Franco to protect young firstbasemen from lefties. So, your mission should be finding not the next Mo Vaughn, but the next Franco.

Doesn't have to be old as the rocks or anythng, but a righthanded professional hitter-type who can more or less handle first.

Somebody tell me I didn't just offer a contract to Todd Zeile.