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STAVE IT OFF

Edgy DC
Sep 25 2005 05:07 PM

Houston is leading Chicago 2-1 in the seventh. One more win by Houston eliminates the Mets from post-season contention. Sending all good thoughts Chicago-bound.

Edgy DC
Sep 25 2005 05:09 PM

Good thoughts pay off! Our old friend Jeromy Burnitz hits a two-run homer to put the Cubs ahead!

Edgy DC
Sep 25 2005 05:29 PM

Patterson makes a huge lead-saving catch.

By the way, both teams are wearing solid-color jerseys and look silly.

Edgy DC
Sep 25 2005 05:34 PM

Barrett and Macias catch Ensberg stealing.

Burnitz looks good as a Cub.

Edgy DC
Sep 25 2005 05:55 PM

Dempster closes it out as Bagwell flies to Burnitz.

Mets live another day!

mlbaseballtalk
Sep 25 2005 05:57 PM

Stayin' Alive, stayin' alive ah ah ah
Staying ALLLLIIIIIIIIIIIIIIVVVEEE!

mlbaseballtalk
Sep 25 2005 06:02 PM



"Gunn: Any word on Wes?
Illyria: Wesley's dead. I'm feeling grief for him. I can't seem to control it. I wish to do more violence.
Spike: Well, wishes just happen to be horses today.
Angel: Among other things.
Gunn: You take the 30,000 on the left.
Illyria: You're fading. You'll last 10 minutes at best.
Gunn: Then let's make it memorable.
Spike: In terms of a plan?
Angel: We fight.
Spike: Bit more specific.
Angel: Well, personally, I kind of want to slay the dragon. Let's get to work."

-Angel S5 ep 22 Not Fade Away
This should explain everything: [url]http://cityofangel.com/episodes/index.html[/url] also note, that was the SERIES Finale of the WB TV show, aired in 2004

GO CARDS!

seawolf17
Sep 25 2005 06:27 PM

If the Mets win out...

...and the Astros, Fish, and Phils lose out...

...this season isn't over.

Edgy DC
Sep 25 2005 07:06 PM

Let's not make this too hard. Houston has to lose out.

The Phils can win one (so long as it's not against us). The Marlins can win four or five, I think.

mlbaseballtalk
Sep 25 2005 07:07 PM

D-Day: War's over, man. Wormer dropped the big one.

Bluto: Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
Otter: Germans?
Boon: Forget it, he's rolling.
Bluto: And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough...
[thinks hard]


Bluto: the tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's go!

[runs out, alone; then returns]

Bluto: What the fuck happened to the Delta I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? "Ooh, we're afraid to go with you Bluto, we might get in trouble." Well just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Wormer, he's a dead man! Marmalard, dead! Niedermeyer...

Otter: Dead! Bluto's right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. We gotta take these bastards. Now we could do it with conventional weapons that could take years and cost millions of lives. No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part.
Bluto: We're just the guys to do it.
D-Day: Let's do it.
Bluto: LET'S DO IT!

Valadius
Sep 25 2005 07:23 PM

I was just watching that 2 days ago.

Spacemans Bong
Sep 25 2005 09:00 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
Patterson makes a huge lead-saving catch.

By the way, both teams are wearing solid-color jerseys and look silly.


I hate solid-color jerseys more than anything. Has anybody here seen one that looks good?

The only thing worse than solid-color jerseys is solid-color jerseys in the postseason. I'm looking at you, Florida.

Edgy DC
Sep 25 2005 09:34 PM

Does the black shirt in your avatar count?

Frayed Knot
Sep 25 2005 10:06 PM

That was career HR #299 for Jeromy btw.
And even if it ends this week (and I see no reason why it has to) the dude carved out a nice career for himself.

metirish
Sep 25 2005 11:16 PM

Burnitz has had a fine career, didn't he nearly retire a few years ago after his season in LA finished, got a call from the Rockies and has never looked back,one thing I liked about Burnitz was his honesty as a player, when he sucked he said it in a very honest way, always tries it seemed.

Edgy DC
Sep 26 2005 11:40 AM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 27 2005 10:21 AM

OK, the Mets have to win their last seven games. It happens. Doesn't happen much, though. Putting aside hard to measure items like home-field advantage and momentum, your average team (playing your average opponent) has a 0.78% of winning their next seven games at any given time.

But this isn't your average team; nor are these your average opponents. When taking into account the Mets winning percentage and their opponents' losing percentages, the chances of the Mets taking the next seven over your Philadelphia Phillies and your Colorado, the chances of the Mets sweeping to the finish is up to 0.99101%.

Wow! Almost 1%!

But, you know, we need a little help from our friends, as we need the Astros to lose their last six. Met fans can take some small comfort in knowing that, if we win tonight, our best friends on Tuesday and Wednesday will be the St. Louis Cardinals, and they are good friends to have. After that, they take on the Cubs, who just stole a victory from them yesterday, and, if the Astros come in on the rebound from a small sweep by St. Louis, will definitely have the 'Stros on their heels. Taking into account the current losing percentage of the Astros and the winning percentages of St. Louis and Chicago óbut not home-field advantage, momentum, or who's pitching ó this occurrence has a 1.45910% chance of coming about. Whoo-hoo!

Now, these two occurrences con-curring ó now we're in tricky territory. Multiply those two percentages by each other and we are at 0.01446%. Um, OK, yeah, we can do that. I used to bullseye womprats in my T-16 back home, and they were no bigger than that.

Of course, there's more. There's often more. Grrr. The Phillies can only win one more game of their remaining six. The good news there is that, in winning out, we'll have already knocked off three of those games. Beyond that, they'll have to come into RFK Stadium and lose two of three to close the year. And that's going to be in adverse circumstances, for I will be in attendance. A sweep would be nice. That would have an 11.12846% chance of occurring. But I don't want to ask for too much. Taking, as usual, current winning and losing percentages into account, the chances Nats taking at least two of three is thrice that ó 33.38539%. Of course that still makes the chances of this whole scenario working out two thirds less likely. All this taken into account, we currently have a 0.00483% chance of surviving the season. That's one tiny womprat.

Lastly are Jack McKeon's pesky (but reeling) Marlins. They retain six games on their schedule, and we can't afford them winning more than five. Not bloody likely, but a likelihood we have to account for in that it's small possibility affect our highly improbable march. The chances of them losing at least one game against Washington and Atlanta are a strong 98.22078%.

That whittles our chances of pulling this whole act off down to 0.00474%, only a little less rosy than the pre-Florida calculation. Iím seeing this as about a 20,703-to-1 shot.

Let's go Mets.

MFS62
Sep 26 2005 11:54 AM

Will our throwing goat entrails by a full moon help the odds any?

Nice job.

Later

metsmarathon
Sep 26 2005 01:30 PM

i'm disappointed - no clever acronym?!

how can we win it all without a clever acronym with which to motivate us?

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 12:50 AM

Mets alive with six games left.

Not so bad.

seawolf17
Sep 27 2005 06:16 AM

This season is... not... over...

This is completely irrational, but my heart jumped when I woke up this morning, turned on the computer, and saw the headline "Mets Rally Past Philly." This could actually happen.

Iubitul
Sep 27 2005 06:55 AM

seawolf17 wrote:
This season is... not... over...

This is completely irrational, but my heart jumped when I woke up this morning, turned on the computer, and saw the headline "Mets Rally Past Philly." This could actually happen.


Good - I'm not the only one who feels this way.

Must. Not. Get. Excited.

Elster88
Sep 27 2005 10:02 AM

All I can say is that a two-meter rat is one big-ass rat.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 145) Cal Koonce

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 10:26 AM

The chance that the Mets will win out the season is now up from 0.99101% to 2.05391%.

Chance of the whole miracle falling into place and the Mets tying the Astros: 0.00983%. I think I have this wrong, but I show that's about a 10,173-to-1 payoff.

Elster88
Sep 27 2005 10:33 AM

Edgy DC wrote:
Chance of the whole miracle falling into place and the Mets tying the Astros: 0.00983%. I think I have this wrong, but I show that's about a 10,173-to-1 payoff.


Why the hell does this make me excited for tonight's games? I have a sickness.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 145) Cal Koonce

Frayed Knot
Sep 27 2005 10:57 AM

]I think I have this wrong, but I show that's about a 10,173-to-1 payoff.


BP has it at 1 in 11,062 (0.00904%)

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 11:20 AM

Go with theirs, the better payday.

I did some small thing wrong, I suspect, in factoring in the odds that Philadelphia takes no more than one from Washington.

Or maybe we calculated it all the same, but they treated all games as a 50/50 prospect, while I factored in the winning percentages and losing percentages of the teams.

Elster88
Sep 27 2005 11:50 AM

True. Isn't it worth it to throw down ten bucks with those odds?
_____________________________
This post had the designation 145) Cal Koonce

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 08:45 PM

Washington, eliminated by the Mets, are doing their part for our great cause by stomping on the Marlins like a burning turd on the doormat. It's 9-0 in the fifth.

Houston and the Cards are tied in the third.
_______________________________________

On edit: DC takes it up to 10-0. No homers either.

Cards/Astros still tied.

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 09:43 PM

Crapple. Jason Lane hits a two-run homer off of Morris.

St. Louis needs to come back against Oswalt.

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 09:56 PM

Doubles by Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders in the bottom of the sixth pull St. Louis back to within a run, 2-1.

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 10:12 PM

Biggio homers in the top of the eighth. The Astros, now with a magic number of four, thanks to the Mets, go up 3-1.

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 10:19 PM

Scrapiron going to Lidge to start the eighth. Edmonds flies to center.
_____________________

And Pujols files to center. Walker grounds to first.

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 10:35 PM

Tavarez struggles through the home eighth and St. Louis has three more outs to tie this up against Lidge.

metirish
Sep 27 2005 10:37 PM

The Braves are the NL East champs again...

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 10:38 PM

Sanders opens with a walk Grak;su;alaixnk is up.

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 10:39 PM

Damn. Pinch-runner Schumaker picked off.

Don't they know what this means to me?

______________________

Grudzy grounds to third. Two out. John Rodriguez (who?) pinch hitting.

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 10:42 PM

Heilman opened.

He whiffs. Nice season, Mets.

metirish
Sep 27 2005 10:44 PM

Astros win, so it's official, the Mets are done but not with the winning...go Mets

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 10:50 PM

Team down by two in the ninth and the pinch runner gets picked when he's not even the tying run.

I'm hoping LaRussa sends him down to Springfield.

metirish
Sep 27 2005 11:05 PM

WOW, LaRussa won't like that, the pinch runner had to be a rookie,any idea who it was?

Rockin' Doc
Sep 28 2005 07:14 AM

It seems that each of the past few springs, people write off the Braves saying that their run atop the NL East is coming to an end. Then, when the dust clears, year after year, there atop the standings sit the Braves as division champions. Season after season, they seem capable of reinventing themselves and coming up with a good team.

In many ways, I admire the Atlanta organization's resiliency and consistancy. I hope the future of the Mets organization holds such promise.

MFS62
Sep 28 2005 07:45 AM

LaRussa has had bad luck in pinch running situations since the Jerry Dubzynski incident when Tony was managing the White Sox. Killed their playoff hopes that year. My friend Shoeless Don the White Sox fan still hates him for that move.

Later

Edgy DC
Sep 28 2005 09:44 AM

]WOW, LaRussa won't like that, the pinch runner had to be a rookie,any idea who it was?


[url=http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/mlb_individual_stats_player.jsp?playerID=435401]Skip Schumaker[/url].

metsmarathon
Sep 28 2005 10:07 AM

for some reason, i don't hate the braves as much this year... i can't figure out why...

HahnSolo
Sep 28 2005 05:33 PM

Re: the Braves' dominance. I just turned 38. The last year that they were not in the postseason [discounting '94] was the same year I graduated college.
Or, put another way, Joe Walton was still coaching the Jets the last time the Braves were not playing postseason games.

KC
Sep 28 2005 05:58 PM

14 divisional titles, one ring ... that kinda hell I wouldn't be able to endure.

cooby
Sep 28 2005 06:00 PM

Lets do it! Lets root for the Braves to go all the way!

KC
Sep 28 2005 06:05 PM

I could only root for the Braves against the MFY's.

But think about it, that's fourteen extended seasons. Thirteen of them ended
in failure. When you watch post-season games the stress gets bumped up a
notch. I would have quit them 7-8 years ago just for sanity sake.

cooby
Sep 28 2005 06:07 PM

Oh, I could root for them against some (not all) teams other than the Yankees, but admittedly it would be a challenge. And very very strange feeling.

And don't tell my dad!

Willets Point
Sep 28 2005 06:25 PM

I'll only root for them if they move back to Boston.