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All-Purpose 2005 Stretch-Run Thread

Edgy DC
Sep 19 2005 08:22 AM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 19 2005 12:32 PM

How about the Marlins heading into the ninth the other day with a 2-0 win and giving up four errors and ten runs in the ninth?

How about them coming back and winning the next day?

sharpie
Sep 19 2005 09:08 AM

How bout those Injuns winning every day.

smg58
Sep 19 2005 09:12 AM

I don't want to think about what would have happened if the Mets did something like that in Shea Stadium.

Is Ensberg coming back for Houston? He's critical to the Astros' chances.

smg58
Sep 19 2005 09:16 AM

sharpie wrote:
How bout those Injuns winning every day.


I'd love to see Cleveland beat the Yankees out of a playoff spot. Once again though, we're reduced to taking solace in the Yankees' misfortune.

Yancy Street Gang
Sep 19 2005 09:19 AM

If the Yankees fail to reach the playoffs, I'll consider this a successful season.

Edgy DC
Sep 19 2005 09:32 AM

The Mets have already exceeded last season's win total. If I have to give an underwhelming nod to this modest accomplishment, and offer interested attention to the rest of the league, while still rooting for the Mets to win out the rest of the run, I can do that.

Go Indians. I knew that Juan Gonzalez deal would pay off for them.

Frayed Knot
Sep 19 2005 09:45 AM

One previously unforseen snag in the Indian run is that they still have 6 remaining w/the reeling ChiSox - so if Cleveland continues to run the table it will automatically push the Pale Hose down to the Yanx's level giving them one more option to beat out for the WC.
In August the ChiSox had a 15 game lead on the Injuns. It's down to 3-1/2 now.

The two remaining teams in the West look like they're going to fight it out amongst themselves and not affect the WC race at all. They have 3 heads-up games left - at Oakland - in the penultimate series of the season.

Edgy DC
Sep 19 2005 09:54 AM

If the White Sox go down, will their fans surpass those of the Red Sox and their crosstown rivals as America's loveable enduring saps?

Yancy Street Gang
Sep 19 2005 10:49 AM

I was wondering just how much the Mets September swoon has cost them.

The Mets, so far in September, are 4-13. What if, however, they had gone 10-7 during those 17 games? That wouldn't have been a red hot pace by any means. It would have been roughly the rate at which they won in August.

Of course, to see how the standings would have been affected, I had to decide how the Mets' extra six September wins would have been distributed.

Here's how they actually played against their opponents in September:

PHL 0-1
FLA 1-2
ATL 2-4
STL 1-3
WAS 0-3


It wouldn't have been unreasonable for them to have had these results instead:

PHL 1-0
FLA 2-1
ATL 3-3
STL 2-2
WAS 2-1


If that had happened the standings, instead of looking like this:

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Atlanta8565.567-
Philadelphia8070.5335
Florida7971.5276
Washington7773.5138
New York7376.49011.5


WILD CARD
Houston8168.544-
Philadelphia8070.5331.5
Florida7971.5272.5
Washington7773.5134.5
Chicago7476.4937.5
New York7376.4908
Milwaukee7376.4908


Would have looked like this:

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Atlanta8466.560-
New York7970.5304.5
Philadelphia7971.5275
Florida7872.5206
Washington7575.5009


WILD CARD
Houston8168.544-
New York7970.5302
Philadelphia7971.5272.5
Florida7872.5203.5
Washington7575.5006.5
Chicago7476.4937.5
Milwaukee7376.4908



Much more promising, to be sure, but still a tough road ahead, with the Mets needing to gain two games on Houston over the last two weeks.

So that, for what it's worth, is more or less the cost of the September swoon.

sharpie
Sep 19 2005 10:56 AM

What hurts more, a September swoon or an August swoon?

Yancy Street Gang
Sep 19 2005 11:05 AM

I'd rather it happen in September, if it has to happen at all. That way, at least you get to enjoy August.

An August filled with meaningless games is pretty dismal.

Elster88
Sep 19 2005 11:09 AM

Yancy Street Gang wrote:
I'd rather it happen in September, if it has to happen at all. That way, at least you get to enjoy August.

An August filled with meaningless games is pretty dismal.


Me, too. Then September sucks too, if in a less painful way.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 151) Glendon Rusch

Rotblatt
Sep 19 2005 11:46 AM

I agree. I'd much rather have a September fade.

I'd like us to finish the season at .500. It's ambitious (we need to go 9-4 over the rest of the season) but it's doable.

7 of them are at home, where we have a .580 W%, and of those game, 4 are against a team with .324 Away W%. Our series in Philadelphia & Washington are going to be tougher, but Washington STILL isn't a very good team and we've played well against the Phillies this year (9-6).

sharpie
Sep 19 2005 12:21 PM

I'm with you, Rotblatt. .500 or bust.

Frayed Knot
Sep 19 2005 11:39 PM

- Yanx beat O's on a walk-off by Bubba Freakin Crosby

- BoSox lose to DevilDogs as fat Wells doesn't survive the 3rd.
Craig Hansen - St John's RP & 1st round pick - makes his ML debut w/a scoreless 6th (2 Ks)

- Cleveland notches 2 in the 8th plus 1 in the 9th for a 7-5 lead over the ChiSox. Bob Wickman trying to close out bottom 9 ... and Konerko pops out w/2 on to end the game.

- Oakland leading 5-0 in the 5th over Mini-soda



- Astros & Clemens (5.2 IPs, 6R, 4 ER) get smacked by the Pyroots (on talk like a pirate day)

- Sandy Eggo trying to maintain a .500 record leads the Rox by 1 heading to the 9th

Valadius
Sep 19 2005 11:52 PM

Well, we already improved on last year.

sharpie
Sep 20 2005 09:22 AM

]Well, we already improved on last year.


Which was an improvement on the year before. WWSB has bested Art Howe.

Edgy DC
Sep 20 2005 10:03 PM

Baltimore coming back in the Bronx, now down 10-6 at the stretch.

Boston up 15-2 on Tampa Bay. McClung was McHung for seven rus in two innings. Even more thrilling for Boston is that Schilling went seven, with seven strikeouts.

OlerudOwned
Sep 20 2005 10:07 PM

="Edgy DC"]Baltimore coming back in the Bronx, now down 10-6 at the stretch.

Boston up 15-2 on Tampa Bay. McClung was McHung for seven rus in two innings. Even more thrilling for Boston is that Schilling went seven, with seven strikeouts.


One of Tampa's only 2 runs, another Cantu home run.
Talk about someone who's been flying under the radar in Tampa Bay. 23 year old 2B, hitting .290 with now 27 home runs and 109 RBI. He's been insane. Absolutely incredible.

Edgy DC
Sep 20 2005 10:10 PM

They've never really had anybody like that either.

OlerudOwned
Sep 20 2005 10:17 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
They've never really had anybody like that either.
Its almost frustrating watching that franchise knowing that if they'd just make a couple of moves for actual big leauge talent, whether it be FA or a trade, they could actually look like a team. Cantu, Lugo, Gomes, Kazmir (argh!), Baez, Crawford, with Delmon Young destroying the minors. How can you NOT try to add a few vets to that and let them play. Its inexplicably cheap.

OlerudOwned
Sep 20 2005 10:28 PM

Pads gave up 15 runs in the first 3 innings at Colorado, and the Gigantors won in Washington (Bonds and Alou homered). Hopefully there will at least wind up being a tight race out there to make up for the godawful collective suckiness.

Frayed Knot
Sep 20 2005 11:31 PM

Cleveland scores in the top of the 9th to tie it.
ChiSox load the bases in their half but Juan Uribe flies out and we're going to the 10th.

Frayed Knot
Sep 20 2005 11:45 PM

Joe Crede hRs in the bottom of the 10th and the Sox temporarily halt their slide.

smg58
Sep 21 2005 12:08 AM

]Its almost frustrating watching that franchise knowing that if they'd just make a couple of moves for actual big leauge talent, whether it be FA or a trade, they could actually look like a team. Cantu, Lugo, Gomes, Kazmir (argh!), Baez, Crawford, with Delmon Young destroying the minors. How can you NOT try to add a few vets to that and let them play. Its inexplicably cheap.


They have enough talent that filling their big holes with even serviceable players would make them very competitive over the next couple of years. I don't think it was dumb holding onto guys they still have control over for next year unless somebody gives up their best prospect (hell, the strategy worked once before). Huff is perfectly capable of bouncing back, and Baez is a solid closer. Getting a couple of adequate starting pitchers could make them .500 next year, and that shouldn't be too hard to do.

Elster88
Sep 21 2005 09:36 AM

I'd really like to watch that last weekend series between Boston and the Yanks, but Dish network doesn't get YES. I'm hoping they put them on ESPN or something.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 149) Willie Mays

Frayed Knot
Sep 21 2005 10:21 AM

The Saturday game will be a day game on FOX, and Friday night probably on NYC's channel 9 (most Friday NYY games have been).

For Sunday's game you're likely SOL without YES or NESN. By then that game could either be for all the marbles or totally meaningless.

Elster88
Sep 21 2005 12:10 PM

If that game means something I'm hoping one of the ESPN channels will pick it up.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 148) George Stone

sharpie
Sep 21 2005 12:23 PM

What, and cut in to one of their football analysis shows?

Edgy DC
Sep 21 2005 08:55 PM

FX Healy is reporting that Lou Pinella is going to accept a buyout offer from the Devil Rays at the end of the season.

Edgy DC
Sep 22 2005 03:22 PM

Another Ken Griffey season ends prematurely

Well, almost made it this time, Ken.

Elster88
Sep 22 2005 03:23 PM

Instead of stitching him up afterwards they should just install a zipper.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 147) Jeff Reardon

Frayed Knot
Sep 22 2005 03:25 PM

Gay Dames - 9/22:


- Houston threatens to make the final week of the NL sked very uninteresting. They beat Pitts again, 2-1 this time as Backe & Lidge combine for the win. Both RBIs by Berkman.


- But Atlanta continues to stumble.
Hudson & Leiber take dueling shut-outs into the 9th ... but Cox stays with his guy just a little bit too long as the Phightins stick him for 4 after 2 were out; RBI PH single by Michael Tucker then a PH 3R HR by Shane Vittorino?? Wagner warming for the bottom of the inning.

Lack of faith (deservedly so) in the pen could cost Atlanta big time in the post-season. Also, their bats have cooled down as their offense is near the league bottom for September. Even wonderboy Francoeur has 2 HRs in his 2nd 100 ABs after tallying 10 in his 1st 100.

Frayed Knot
Sep 22 2005 03:33 PM

Bottom 9:

Giles - 1B
Chipster - GO
Druw - K
Franco - K

... and the Phils win.


Houston lead in the WC stays at 2, Atlanta's east lead at 4

Elster88
Sep 22 2005 03:37 PM

Is there any chance of Philly catching the Braves? I don't really think so.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 146) Tsuyoshi Shinjo

Frayed Knot
Sep 22 2005 03:41 PM

'Specially not since they play us next week and we're gonna kick their cheese-steak eatin' butts back down the turnpike.

Frayed Knot
Sep 23 2005 09:43 AM

AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME ...


NL East

Braves: 86-67, 4.0 GA
3 vs Fla -- 3 vs Col -- 3 @ Fla

Phillies: 82-71, 4.0 GB
3 @ Cinc -- 3 vs METS -- 3 @ Wash

Marlins: 80-73, 6 GB
3 @ Atl -- 3 vs Wash -- 3 vs Atl

Nationals: 78-75, 8 GB
3 vs METS -- 3 @ Florida -- 3 vs Phil


Wild Card

Astros: 84-69, 2 GA
3 @ Chic -- 2 @ StL -- 4 vs Chic

Phillies = 2 GB
Marlins = 4 GB
Nationals = 6 GB


NL West

Padres: 76-76, 5 GA
3 @ Arizona -- 4 vs SF -- 3 vs LA

Giants: 71-81, 5 GB
3 @ Colorado -- 4 @ SD -- 3 vs Ariz




AL East

NYY 89-63, 1 GA
3 vs Toronto -- 4 vs Balt -- 3 @ Boston

Red Sox 88-64, 1 GB
3 @ Baltimore -- 4 vs Toronto -- 3 vs NYY



AL Central

White Sox 91-61, 1.5 GA
3 vs Minnesota -- 4 @ Detroit -- 3 @ Cleveland

Indians 90-63, 1.5 GB
3 @ KC -- 3 vs TB -- 3 vs Chicago



AL West

Angels 87-65, 3 GA
3 vs TB -- 4 @ Oakland -- 3 @ TB

Oakland 84-68, 3 GB
3 vs Texas -- 4 vs LAA -- 3 @ Seattle


Wild Card

Indians
Red Sox - 1.5 GB
Oakland - 5.5 GB

Zvon
Sep 23 2005 08:36 PM

Ryan Howard with another HUGE homer for the Phils, following a Chase Utley kaboomer, and they are beating Cincy 6-1.

My, they are playing good baseball down this stretch.

Zvon
Sep 23 2005 09:10 PM

^ Cincy comes back to tie this game.
6-6.In the 6.

Zvon
Sep 23 2005 09:53 PM

Madson gives up 2 dingers in relief.

Cincy has a 10- 6 lead in the 8th.

Edgy DC
Sep 23 2005 10:32 PM

And Philadelphia throws up a five in the ninth to go up 11-10.

Zvon
Sep 23 2005 10:34 PM

Chase Utley (5 rbi game) and David Bell both smack HUGE 9th inning homers and the Phils comeback and win.
Pretty amazing.

Frayed Knot
Sep 23 2005 11:48 PM

Blown leads & saves all over the place today - not just in D.C.

Marlins take a 3-0 lead into the 8th and - deciding that the save opp isn't always in the 9th inning - go to Todd Jones to shut things down. Only he didn't ... and the Braves scored 4 times and essentially killed whatever slim hope the Marlins still had. That's 2 bad games for Jones this week alone. Wonder if it's because he can't handle the pressure of playing in Florida?

David Weathers was the culprit in the 9th for the Reds after the Phils blew and early 5-run lead. 8 HRs in that game.

Cleveland blew several leads but has now score in the 10th and turn things over to Bob Wickman ... who shuts down the Royals 1-2-3.

Giants score 5 in the 8th against Colorado - and mostly against Mike DeJean.

Frayed Knot
Sep 24 2005 11:32 PM

AL:

Yanx lose -- BoSox win -- ChiSox win -- Injuns win

So the Bostons make up the game they lost the other day and there's a dead tie in the ALEast. Both those teams are 1.5 games behind the WC-leader Cleveland who themselves are 1.5 behind the PaleHose.

- Cleveland's won 17 of 19
- Boston's Foulke won't pitch again this year
- Jaret Wright likely pitched himself out of a rotation spot - and managed to *Yet Again* get nailed with another comebacker. That's 3 times this month!

Oakland won today after being the only contender to lose yesterday. Angels have won 7 straight plus are winning tonight. Oakland's gonna need a sweep this week to have a chance.



NL:
Houston wins on the day Rocket sits out w/a hammy. Zeke Astacio out-duels C. Zambrano

Phils get skunked by Eric Milton of all folks and lose to the Reds. Jimmy Rollins keeps his hit streak going at 29!

'Lanta beats the Marlins again. Marlins have lost 10 of 12 after briefly leading the WC chase.

And, oh yeah, the Mets beat the Nats!!!!

Houston leads WC - Phils back to 2 back - Marlins at -5



Shockingly, ESPN is showing a bunch of these games tomorrow. NYC will get Phils/Reds at 1:00, Angels/Rays at 4:00, then the national TV game a A's/Rangers at 8:00.
Nice day for FOX to decide [u:4dcc397ca9]not[/u:4dcc397ca9] to show a GotW huh?

Edgy DC
Sep 24 2005 11:48 PM

Astacio coming through gets the Mets down to a one game elimination number. It would be a challenge to hang onto that for one more day. I'm at tomorry's game, so hold out, Mets.

Zvon
Sep 25 2005 03:08 PM

Phils lost yesterday, but are kickin it 2day.
Up 6-1.

Rollins lead of the game with a kaboom and that lil sparkplug Chase Utley smacks an inside the park homer.

Zvon
Sep 25 2005 04:31 PM

Phils won that game....
Houstons losing 1-0 to the Cubbies in the 5th.
Atlanta drys up the Fish at 5-3.

Its still quite an interesting race.

Frayed Knot
Sep 25 2005 11:12 PM

NL:

Braves win - but Smoltz hurting
Phils win - Rollins now at 30 straight games w/hit
Giants win
Marlins lose
Astros lose
Padres lose

Houston leads Phils by 1 for the WC. No one else realistically in it.

Braves 'magic number' for the East is 2

Pads still lead West by 4 and face the Gints 4 times this week




AL:
Yanx win
BoSox win
ChiSox win
Injuns lose (in extras when their CFer loses a ball in the sun)
Angels lose
A's lose


East in a flat tie

Native Americans down in the Central by 2.5 and up in WC by only 1/2 over whoever loses the East race.

A's down by 4 to Angels and will butt heads w/them this week. Like their cross bay compatriots, they'll essentially need a sweep.

Frayed Knot
Sep 26 2005 10:51 AM

BP Playoff Odds Report - as of Monday morning:

RedSox: Division = 57.65%, Wild Card = 6.26%, Total = 63.91%
Yanx: 42.35%, WC = 7.23%, Total = 49.58%

Sox have Blue Jays while Yanx get O's (advantage MFY) but Boston is at home/MFY on the road (ad Boston) and then the weekend head-to-head is also in Beantown.

ChiSox: Division = 71.14%, WC = 26.56%, Total = 97.70%
Injuns: Division = 26.86%, WC = 59.95%, Total = 88.81%

Indians host Tampa (3) while Sox go to Detroit (4) before finishing w/3 head-to-head in Cleveland.



Angels: Division = 90.69%, WC = 0.00%
A's: Division = 9.31%

Like I said, the A's virtually need a sweep - 4 games in Oakland starting tonight.





Braves: Division = 99.88%, WC = 0.11%, Total = 99.982% (magic number = 2)
Phils: Division = 0.123%, WC = 33.35%, Total = 33.48% (this is where we can really muck things up)
Marlins: WC = 0.03968%
Mets: WC = 0.00342% ("I'm not dead yet!")

Astros: WC = 66.50%


Padres: Division = 97.39% (C'mon, finish .500+ and stop embarassing the league)
Giants: Division = 2.59% (they need a sweep - 4 in SD starting today - plus maybe an earthquake)
D'Backs: Division = 0.01713% (Really? - I thought they were eliminated in July!)

Yancy Street Gang
Sep 26 2005 10:58 AM

]Padres: Division = 97.39% (C'mon, finish .500+ and stop embarassing the league)


I don't mind the embarrassment. In fact, I kind of enjoy it. I'd like to see the Padres win the World Series with a losing record. It's the downside of having too many divisions and I'd love to see Bud Selig try to justify it.

Anything that embarrasses MLB is fine by me.

Rotblatt
Sep 26 2005 01:13 PM

Good point, Yance! Count me in as someone who'd like to see that as well!

Zvon
Sep 26 2005 01:30 PM

So i guess you all realize the Mets can make or break the Phils chances for the playoffs, and the Phils can make or break the Mets chances for .500.

This should be a good series coming up.

ScarletKnight41
Sep 26 2005 01:30 PM

Yancy Street Gang wrote:
I'd like to see the Padres win the World Series with a losing record. It's the downside of having too many divisions and I'd love to see Bud Selig try to justify it.



The Diamond Knights were considering that possibility the other day - we thought it would be hysterical if the Pads won the WS with a losing record.

Edgy DC
Sep 27 2005 12:42 AM

A triple by Randy Winn and a single by J.T. Snow and San Francisco turns a 2-1 ninth-inning deficit into a 3-2 win over San Diego, pulling within three games.

And they're guaranteed to finish below .500.

Frayed Knot
Sep 27 2005 12:47 AM

Yanx romp (geez, just watch Bal'mer for an inning and you can see how much they suck)
BoSox rained out
ChiSox lose to Detroit
Angels beat A's

Braves lose - haven't clinched yet.
Nats beat Fish

And Giants beat Pads -- Funny how a certain NY radio duo have been assuring thier audience that one Armando Benitez was sure to blow a game here cuz, y'know, that's what he does this time of year. 'Cept that it was Hoffman who failed tonight while Armando took care of the save 1-2-3 on 11 pitches.
This example will of course be ignored in future pronouncements that he can't save this kind of game at this time of year.


Oh yeah, and the Mets beat the Phils.

Frayed Knot
Sep 27 2005 11:19 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 28 2005 10:19 AM

A whole lotta stumblin' goin on in the AL:

Injuns lose to Tampa - down by 2 they scored once in the 9th and had 1st & 3rd w/1 out ... when Belliard GiDP'd to end the game

ChiSox lose to Tiggers - another 1 run game. They also were down by 2 then scored 1 in the 9th and left 2 on as Jermaine Dye flied out to end the game

BoSox split - Won the gay dame, but then blew 3-0 & 5-2 leads to lose 7-5. Schilling still having his problems

Yanx about to lose - despite a 2R & GS HRs by Sheffield. Mussina didn't last the 2nd despite having a 5-1 lead early. O's lead 17-9 heading for the 9th. Even THEY couldn't blow that one!!!!


So it looks like the 3-way tie - NY/Bos/Cleve will live on another day. ChiSox aren't exactly steaming towards the finish line but they take another day off the schedule.

In the West the Angels lead the A's early





NL:

Braves clinch east

Mets & Florida eliminated from post-season. Mets grab 3rd place.

Houston takes a 2-1/2 game lead in the WC chase. Magic number = 3

Giants & Padres tied at 4 - Bonds w/#708

Frayed Knot
Sep 28 2005 10:18 AM

AL:

Angels won late last night and clinched the West, so now it's just a question of how 4 will fit into 3.

BP's 'Playoff Odds' report has it as:
Boston: Division = 55.71%, WC = 10.45%, Total = 66.16%
Yanquis: Division = 44.29%, WC = 11.66%, Total = 55.95%

ChiSox: Division = 67.15%, WC = 28.19%, Total = 95.34%
Injuns: Division = 33.85, WC = 49.70%, Total = 82.55%


btw, for all the gloating about how the Wild Card "saved" baseball and made this season in particular, wouldn't it be even more fun if BOTH divisions were in a win or go home mode and not have the WC to fall back on? And then imagine if you go back to the old 2-division set-up and Cleveland/Boston/NYY are locked in a 3-way tie for one crown ... oh Baby!




NL:

It ain't over yet ... but just about.

Astros WC = 94.29%
Phils WC = 5.71%

We can't kill the Phintings tonight, but we can put them in the position of getting last rites.


In the West, Ramon Hernandez's Grand Slam + 7 RBIs (hmmmm?) just about put an end to things out there too:

Padres Division = 98.92%
Giants Division = 1.06%
D'Backs Division = 0.0145% ... Now THAT would be funny!

Next Padre win ends things.

Edgy DC
Sep 29 2005 09:51 AM

The National League West champ? Your 79-79 San Diego Padres.

Elster88
Sep 29 2005 09:55 AM

ChiSox need one win to clinch the AL Central. BoSox and Injuns tied for the Wild Card, one game behind the Yanx.

smg58
Sep 29 2005 10:05 AM

After all the offense the Indians have generated the past couple of weeks, they lose 1-0 to a guy who came into the game with a 7.11 ERA. Baseball can be a funny sport sometimes.

Frayed Knot
Sep 29 2005 10:38 AM

Not suprisingly, the odds are changing more rapidly now with each new day of results.

[u:1e3b34018d]AL East[/u:1e3b34018d]:

Yanx - Division = 64.55%, WC = 12.74%, Total = 77.29%
BoSox - Division = 35.45%, WC = 17.48%, Total = 52.93%

ChiSox - Division = 86.65%, WC = 12.60%, Total = 99.25%
Injuns - Division = 13.49%, WC = 57.18%, Total = 70.53%


Boston is playing so bad right now I have no faith in them whatsoever.
Arroyo just plain sucked last night and their hitters left about a million guys on base.

That's 3 straight [u:1e3b34018d]1 run losses[/u:1e3b34018d] for the Indians

Baltimore just plain suxx. Even when they play well they still manage to suck.



[u:1e3b34018d]NL - Wild Card[/u:1e3b34018d]:

Astros = 96.85%
Phillies = 3.15%

Edgy DC
Sep 29 2005 10:45 AM

Too bad we couldn't have eliminated Philadelphia.

Let's finish the season by eliminateing the Rockies from something.

Hey, they're four games behind Los Angeles with four to go. That would be something.

Mo' better, let's secure third place, because last night's loss both cost us that position for a night, plus any chance we had at second.

Frayed Knot
Sep 29 2005 03:56 PM

ChiSox just win their gay dame and have clinched a playoff spot even though not yet a division.
Cleveland can still force a Central tie if they win tonight and then run the table against Chicago ... but even then, the fact that the Yanx & BoSox are playing each other assures that at least one (or both) of them will finish with a worse record than the theoretically tied Cleve/ChiW tandem meaning that the ChiSox are at least a WC at this point w/o having to go through any play-in games.

That situation may be good for the Indians - and bad for the MFYSawx loser - since the ChiSox now have nothing to play for and may rest some regulars against Cleveland this weekend, giving the Injuns a good shot at taking 2 or 3 games and thus grabbing the WC.


And I don't want to say that Boston is desperate but they just traded for Mike Stanton!! He won't be playoff eligible obviously but I guess they see him as a middle inning Giambi/Matsui antidote or something. Gee, that current lefty sidewinder Myers they already have can't do that?
This all kinda reminds me of the time that the Yanx traded for Dave Kingman strictly to play in a 4-game series against Boston figuring that he'd find the Monster an inviting target.

Edgy DC
Sep 29 2005 04:07 PM

We should see what they'll give us for Frank Tanana.

Edgy DC
Sep 29 2005 04:53 PM

Retrosheet says the remarkable career of Yankee Kingman included only two pinch at-bats against Boston, one for a homer:

#DateOpponentGSABRH2B3BHRRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFXIROEGDPSBCSAVGOBPSLGBPPos

9-17AT DET1512101200300000000.400.4001.2006dh

9-18AT DET1411001200200000000.333.3331.1116dh

9-19AT BOS0111001100000000000.400.4001.4009ph

9-21AT BOS0100000000000001000.364.3641.2739ph
19-25AT TOR1421001110200000000.333.3751.2006dh

9-26VS CLE1300000100210000000.278.3501.0006dh

9-27VS CLE1301100000100000000.286.348.9526dh

9-30VS DET1300000010300000001.250.333.8336dh


Total624562047201310001001.250.333.833

OlerudOwned
Sep 29 2005 08:48 PM

Boston choking their way right out of this thing, down 4-1 in the fifth thanks to a 2 run homer by Frank Catalanatto (of Staten Island, i think).

ChiSox beat Detroit 4-2
MFYs leading Baltimore 6-0 in the 5th (MFGiambi homered, Aaron Small allowing 1 hit in 4 innings so far)
Injiuns lead the Rays 6-0 in the 6th, playing powerball with Hafner, Jhonny Peralta, and Ron Belliard homering.

seawolf17
Sep 29 2005 10:02 PM

David Ortiz just drilled one over the Monster in left-center to tie the game at 4 in the bottom of the eighth.

This guy is sick. 20 of his 47 home runs have either tied the game or given the Sox the lead. Can you believe the Twins just gave him away? Wow.

OlerudOwned
Sep 29 2005 10:03 PM

="seawolf17"]David Ortiz just drilled one over the Monster in left-center to tie the game at 4 in the bottom of the eighth.

This guy is sick. 20 of his 47 home runs have either tied the game or given the Sox the lead. Can you believe the Twins just gave him away? Wow.
MVPapi

Frayed Knot
Sep 29 2005 11:25 PM

Well Boston came back to win - on a 9th inning RBI walk-off single by
Papi of course - which is a good thing or this much-ballyhooed
weekend series was about to become really boring.

Yanx also won of course, meaning that Boston essentially has to win
3 out of 4; 2 of 3 to get them into a tie and then they'll need to take the
1-game playoff game on Monday (at Yanqui stad btw).
3 straight will also do it obviously.

I was wrong on the earlier post about the ChiSox. They HAVE won
the division because they win the head-to-head tie-breaker
w/the Injuns even if Cleveland sweeps this weekend's games.


Houston loses and heads into the final weekend w/a 2 game lead
over Philly.
Houston hosts Cubs for 3 more, Philly at Washington for 3.

Rotblatt
Sep 30 2005 09:59 AM

Gonna be an interesting weekend.

I'm a little torn. Cleveland's an exciting young team, but I'm fond of the Sox and I really, really hate the Yankees.

Clearly, sweeps by Boston & Cleveland would be best, but I rather doubt that's going to happen.

I suppose the next best thing would be the Sox & Indians both go 2-1, the Sox win their 1-game playoff for the division win, then Cleveland wins their 1-game playoff for the WC win, thus eliminating the Yankees in excrutiating fashion.

That's marginally more likely, but Boston's pitching really sucks and if Small, Wang & Chacon haven't turned into pumpkins yet, I don't see it happening now.

My guess is that the Yankees & Indiands both take 2 this weekend and Boston is eliminated. Next most likely scenario is both Cleveland & Boston winning only 1 and dueling it out on Monday.

I wonder what Ozzie's going to do. If he packs it in and plays scrubs, whomever loses the Yankee/Sox series is going to be livid.

Frayed Knot
Sep 30 2005 10:51 AM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 30 2005 12:17 PM

OK, let's see how this looks; # of MFY wins this weekend on top, # of Cleveland wins on the left:




NYY=0NYY=1NYY=2NYY=3
CLE=0NYYNYYNYYNYY
BOSBOSBOSB v C
CLE=1BOSNYYNYYNYY
N v CBOSB v CCLE
CLE=2BOSN v BNYYNYY
CLEWin v CCLECLE
CLE=3BOSN v BNYYNYY
CLECLECLECLE



Or, looked at another way, out of the 16 possible scenarios this weekend:

NYY are in post-season in 11 of them (70.3% chance of occuring)
need to win a play-in game in 2 (9.4%)
need to win TWO play-in games in 1 (14.0%)
and are OUTTA here in 2 (6.3%)

Boston gets in via 7 of the outcomes (36.0%)
Needs to win a play-in game in 3 (20.3%)
Needs the double play-in route in 1 (14%)
and is OUT in 5 (29.7%)

Cleveland gets in via 8 of the 16 (40.7%)
Needs a play-in game in 4 (including 1 where they wait for a NYY/Bos play-in) (34.3%)
and is out via 4 outcomes (25.0%)

Yancy Street Gang
Sep 30 2005 11:19 AM

Ouch. Nice chart (and nice work) but bad news.

I guess we need to start accepting that the Yankees are probably in.

Their first round opponent could be Chicago, Cleveland, or Anaheim. I hope it's not the White Sox. I'd take Cleveland or Anaheim. It's strange not knowing who's going to be my temporary favorite team next week.

In the NL, the matchups are easier to guess: It will probably be Cards-Padres and Braves-Astros. If the Phillies pull off a small miracle, it'll be Cards-Phillies and Braves-Padres.

Willets Point
Sep 30 2005 11:25 AM

Wouldn't a play-in game at Yankee Stadium be sweet if the Red Sox won with the help of a cheap homerun by a light-hitting infielder?

Frayed Knot
Sep 30 2005 12:31 PM
Edited 3 time(s), most recently on Sep 30 2005 03:22 PM

AL scenarios above edited so as to include odds of occuring.
Odds are based on each individual game being a 50/50 shot.

Another way to look at that series is to just treat it as a [u:240300f8f5]4 Game series[/u:240300f8f5]
which is clinched as soon as the Yanx win 2 or the Sox win 3 and where
game 4 (Monday) is only played if necc.



In a similar deal with the NL Wild Card:
* Houston gets in via 13 of the 16 possible outcomes - (89.0%)

* Philly gets directly in via only 1 (they sweep, Astros gets swept) - (1.6%)

* and 2 of those 16 outcomes - Phils win 2 / Astros zero, or Phils win 3 / Astros 1 - will result
in a Monday death-match - (9.4%)




So, based on this method, there's a 25% chance that there'll be AL play-
in baseball on Monday, plus a 14% chance that they'll need be both
Monday & Tuesday to settle it all.
Tack on the 9.4% chance of an NL tie and it's nearly a 50/50 proposition
that there'll be at least one game of free Monday baseball and about a 4%
chance that BOTH leagues will need it!!!!

Rotblatt
Sep 30 2005 12:44 PM

Alex Fucking Cora.
Tony Fucking Graffanino.

I like the sound of both of those.

Yancy Street Gang
Sep 30 2005 08:48 PM

Bottom 5, Red Sox 2, Yankees 1.

Top 6, White Sox 1, Indians 0.

Zvon
Sep 30 2005 09:42 PM

Update

Boston up 5-3.
Cleveland losing to Chicago in the 9th, 1-0.

Asstros tied 2-2 with the Cubbies after 6.
Phils are winning 4-2 in the 8th.

Johnny Dickshot
Sep 30 2005 10:25 PM

Philly won.

Cubs just tied up Houston again -- off Lidge in the 9th!

Injuns-WSox going to B 11 tied 1-1.

Great time of year this is.

Zvon
Sep 30 2005 10:49 PM

Johnny Dickshot wrote:
Philly won.

Cubs just tied up Houston again -- off Lidge in the 9th!

Injuns-WSox going to B 11 tied 1-1.

Great time of year this is.


Cubs beat Asstros!!!

Phils win!

Boston beat the Skanks and the Indians/WhiteSox game is still tied in the 12th.

Yea,....this is great baseball goin on here.

Johnny Dickshot
Sep 30 2005 10:51 PM

Plus, what's better than color commentary from Steve Phillips while Timo Perez plays right field?

That's right. Nothing.

Bottom 12th.

Edgy DC
Oct 01 2005 08:47 AM

Nobody stayed up to report on Cleveland losing.

Plus, Ozzie used his post-game comments to fire back at critics who didn't like him starting his reserves the night after clinching.

FK's most excellent chart with now-impossible scenarios X-ed out:


NYY=0NYY=1NYY=2NYY=3
CLE=0NYYNYYNYYXXX
BOSBOSBOSXXX
CLE=1BOSNYYNYYXXX
N v CBOSB v CXXX
CLE=2BOSN v BNYYXXX
CLEWin v CCLEXXX
CLE=3XXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXX


The real back-to-the-wall team now is Cleveland, as the Yanks seem to be sitting just as pretty. Out of nine remaining scenarios, I see the Yankees still winning the division in six, getting a play-in for the division in a seventh, and getting a play-in for the wildcard if that seventh scenario for the division comes up short. And a last scenario is where Boston wins the division outright.

Boston wins the division outright in two scenarios in nine. In four scenarios, they win the wildcard, in one they play-in for the wildcard. In the last, they play-in for the division, and, if losing that, they play-in for the wildcard.

Cleveland, eliminated from the division championship, has two scenarios in nine in which they win the wildcard, and three in nine in which they get a play-n game.

Losing either of their next two costs them any chance to win the division outright. Losing both eliminates them no matter what the Yankees and Boston do to each other.

Zvon
Oct 01 2005 08:58 AM

I almost follow allAthat....its kinda early.

Note to self___________________
read this again after a cup of coffee.

Frayed Knot
Oct 01 2005 09:12 AM

Yeah, those fargin' Injuns blew the chance to make this REAL fuckin' interesting this weekend. It's still gonna be good, but now the winner of today's NY/Bos game is in the playoffs or at least survives until a Monday play-in game.

The ChiSox winning cements for them the best record in the AL, meaning that a WC winner coming from the East will face Chicago in the opening round.


Here's how it breaks down now:
Yanx & Boston are in the exact same situation obviously - except that the Yanx win any tiebreaker. So that those situations (top-middle of the chart) where those teams splits and Cleveland wins either 1 or none will make the Yanx champs and Boston the WC (maybe an advantage for the "loser"?)


Odds Report (assuming each game a 50/50 proposition):

NYY & Boston:
- In the playoffs in 6 of 9 outcomes - (68.75%)
- Need to win a play-in game in 1 of 9 - (12.5%)
- Need to win a double play-in game in 1 of 9 - (12.5%)
- and are OUT in only 1 of 9 {get swept/Cleveland wins both} - (6.25%)

Cleveland:
- In the playoffs in 2 of 9 outcomes (12.5%)
- Need to win a play-in game in 3 of 9 - including 1 where they play the NYY/BOS play-in winner (37.5%)
- OUTTA HERE in 4 of 9 (50%)





In the NL, Philly still faces long odds but they managed to shorten them up a bit:

Houston wins in 6 of 9 outcomes (68.75%)
Philly still clinches in only 1 - they take 2/Astros lose both (6.25%)
And a play-in game is needed for 2 of the 9 - Phils splits/Astros lose both, or Philly takes 2/Astros split (25%)

Johnny Dickshot
Oct 01 2005 12:36 PM

Injuns gotta be kicking themselves. Broussard, I think it was, whiffed with one out and a man on 3rd in the 11th, then Blake in the 13th got caught in no-man's land on Harris' drive to RCF, getting neither the catch nor the carom, allowing a triple on what should have been a double and might have been a single.

The Sox tried to give it back when Podsednik tried to bunt Harris in, but Harris wasn;t anticipating it and got thrown out. Only Podsednik advanced to 2nd on the play. Sox send up Konerko to PH and they walk him to get to Gload who creams one and scores two.

Belliard homers in the bottom of the inning to bring the Tribe back within one, then Broussard again poips up for the last out.

The White Sox have an excellent bullpen. One great arm after another.

Frayed Knot
Oct 01 2005 03:31 PM

]The White Sox have an excellent bullpen. One great arm after another.


And they've recently thrown this Bobby Jenks guy into the mix.
He became a hot-shot in the Angels org of few years back by throwing 100 mph - only he he couldn't control it. He also came from some real white-trash, trailer-park background and had trouble controlling himself on more than a few cases (and especially after he polished off a few cases).

Seems like Ozzie's now using him as the #1 closer.


And as I type this Cleveland is getting to the ChiSox pen and has closed to 4-3
The thing is, if the Indians are going to get swept away here the whole NYY/BOS series is essentially going to mean nothing after all the hype.

Frayed Knot
Oct 01 2005 04:30 PM

So the Yanx clinch the division and we're down to 4 possible scenarios:

Boston gets in anyway under 3 of them, and stays alive for a play-in game at home on Monday under the other.


Sunday's games:

1) Boston Wins / Cleveland Wins = Boston is WC, Indians go home

2) Boston Wins / Cleveland Loses = Boston is WC, Indians go home

3) Boston Loses / Cleveland Loses = Boston is WC, Indians go home

4) Boston Loses / Cleveland Wins = 1 Game Playoff for WC in Boston on Monday


If Boston is WC then Round 1 is:
Sox Rouge vs Sox Blanc -- & -- Yanks vs Angels (NYY home advantage)

If Cleveland is WC then it's:
Indians vs MFY in round 1 -- & -- Angels vs ChiSox (Chicago home ad)

Edgy DC
Oct 01 2005 04:35 PM

Four outcomes left:


NYY=0NYY=1NYY=2NYY=3
CLE=0XXXNYYNYYXXX
XXXBOSBOSXXX
CLE=1XXXNYYNYYXXX
XXXBOSB v CXXX
CLE=2XXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXX
CLE=3XXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXX


Looks like the Yanks have clinched and Cleveland has only a one-in-four chance of getting even a play-in game. Is that right?

Rotblatt
Oct 01 2005 04:40 PM

Yup, I think that's it, Edge.

I seriously think I'm going to root for the Yankees tomorrow. It would be the first time I've ever done that . . .

I might not be able to go through with it, though.

Torre indicated that he'd rest his regulars tomorrow, so it'd be especially humiliating if the Sox lost. I'm guessing Sheffield sits. A-Rod will play to burnish his MVP credentials.

Maybe we'll see Bellhorn out there tomorrow, which would be interesting.

Frayed Knot
Oct 02 2005 09:58 AM

NL WC is the same situation as the AL with the Astros playing the part of Boston and Phils starring as Cleveland.
Astros clinch with a win or a Phillie loss and are guaranteed of at least living until a Monday game if they lose & Phils win.

Houston sends Oswalt against Maddux, Phils using Leiber in Washington against carrasco.
In Boston it's Schilling vs J. Wright, in Cleveland Elarton vs McCarthy.


The only other update is that I didn't realize that the Yanx have NOT YET clinched home field over the Angels. A win today by LAA and a MFY loss means that the Agels hold the home field if/when those two meet.


And the Mets have clinched at least a tie for 3rd, and will have sole possession w/a win and/or a Marlin loss to the Braves.

Willets Point
Oct 02 2005 11:04 AM

Baseball causes me great pain yet I keep coming back. Is there an amnesty program for those tortured by baseball?

cooby
Oct 02 2005 11:05 AM

Yeah, it's called "Cranepool Forum"

Edgy DC
Oct 02 2005 01:50 PM

Cleveland down 2-0 already. Boston/New York not underway yet.

It's a shame that, at least so it looks, Cleveland's great run will end with such a bad finish.

Yancy Street Gang
Oct 02 2005 03:55 PM

Bottom of the 8th: White Sox 3, Indians 1.
Bottom of the 4th: Red Sox 2, Yankees 0.

If either lead holds up, the Indians are doomed.


Top of the 8th: Phillies 5, Nationals 3.
Bottom of the 6th: Astros 4, Cubs 4.

Nailbiting time in Houston and Philly. If the Phils hang on, and the Cubs win, there's a playoff game tomorrow.

Houston's fate is in their own hands.

Yancy Street Gang
Oct 02 2005 04:02 PM

Red Sox extend lead to 6-0.
White Sox still up 3-1 and batting in the top of the 9th.

Cleveland needs a miracle.

Astros pull ahead of Chicago in the bottom of the 6th. 5-4, Houston still batting. Philadelphia needs a reversal in that game. They're still up 5-3 in Washington with the Nationals batting in the bottom of the 8th.

Yancy Street Gang
Oct 02 2005 04:44 PM

Indians lose. They're done. Red Sox are the wild card.

Marlins win, so the Mets finish 83-79 and tied for third place.

If that seems familiar, it's the same way the Mets finished in 1971, my rookie season as a fan. (83-79, tied for third with the Cubs.)

This is the fourth season that the Mets have finished with 83 wins. I think it's their most frequent win total.

Astros still leading. It's 6-4, bottom 8. All of Philadelphia's hopes are hanging on the Cubs scoring at least two in the 9th.

Yancy Street Gang
Oct 02 2005 04:48 PM

Cubs get runners on second and third with two out, but the rally dies there.

Final score: Astros 6, Cubs 4.

The Phillies are still winning in Washington, but the game no longer has meaning. They're done, Astros go to the postseason.

MFS62
Oct 02 2005 04:49 PM

Great!
Now we can root against Pettite and Clemens.

At least its something.

Later

Frayed Knot
Oct 02 2005 10:12 PM

No exciting ties (actually there was a 3-way tie in the AL - Angels Sawx & Yanx - but all were in anyway so things just got settled w/tie-breakers) so no Monday baseball.

Angels won 9 of their last 10 to grab the #2 seed

Cleveland lost 6 of their last 7 - 5 by one run - to miss the playoffs.

Padres got their 82nd win.

Cards only ML team to win 100 (did it today). No one else in the NL won more than 90 !!


But the biggest kick I got today was when I was in the car and briefly (maybe 3 minutes) tuned to the Yanqui game on the radio. This was after the thing was pretty much settled (7-0 or so) so all that was left for Johnny & Suzyn to do was cry about what a "disgrace" it was for Buck to pull his regulars starting about the 3rd or 4th inning against the Angels. 'Oh the shame of it all!'
Sounds like a few somebodies didn't want to get on a cross-country flight right after the game - and miss some kind of scheduled pep rally thingie tomorrow.



So the matchups are:

NYY @ ANA
BOSox @ CHISox

PADRES @ StL
ASTROS @ BRAVES



I've only checked as far as the Tuesday schedule:

1:00 - Pads v Cards (suxx for SD fans, a game at 11AM local time!!)

4:00 - BoSox v ChiSox

8:00 - Yanx v Angels (prime time, always prime time)

Edgy DC
Oct 02 2005 11:31 PM

So, who do you like in that Padres-Cardinals matchup.

You know, with eight out of 30 teams qualifying for the post-season, a few year in and year out, sometimes the champagne shower seems a little forced. I won't begrudge them or nothing, but, you know, win a pennant or a World Series, then we're talking.

Division series, naah.