THE CRANE POOL FORUM thecranepool.net (.com)


Forum Home

Master Index of Archived Threads


Playoff Odds Report

Frayed Knot
Sep 05 2005 12:02 AM

The recent losing stretch dropped us to less than a 9% chance of making the playoffs: 1.3% shot at winning the division, 7.5% of the WC, according to the 'Baseball Prospectus' odds chart.
Philly - 38.5%, Houston - 31.1%, & Florida - 22.75% were considerably ahead.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

At one point last week we were up in the mid-30s pct range but things are going to change more rapidly now as the time to make up for lost ground dwindles.

Sunday's games - where our win combined with all except Washington (and they're behind us anyway) losing - should improve matters when they get around to updating the info.

Elster88
Sep 05 2005 02:05 AM

Washington was (as of the start of yesterday) and is ahead of us by half a game.
_____________________________
This post was under the designation 164) Keith Miller

Rotblatt
Sep 05 2005 08:48 AM

And indeed, we moved up a bit, going to a 1.30613% for the division, 7.51038% for the wild card and 8.81650 overall.

It's worth mentioning that we have the best adjusted run differential of all wild card contenders--better, in fact, than the Braves--so if we start moving ahead of other contenders, our odds will increase pretty dramatically.

That's a pretty big if, however, given our poor play of late.

MFS62
Sep 05 2005 09:23 AM

The only time run differential means anything is at the end of nine innings.

Thanks for the update.

Later

Frayed Knot
Sep 05 2005 01:04 PM

]And indeed, we moved up a bit, going to a 1.30613% for the division, 7.51038% for the wild card and 8.81650 overall.


Those were the odds before Sunday's games were counted. Now it's up to: 2.79% for the division and 12.21% for the WC, or 15..00% shot at post-season all together.



]Washington was (as of the start of yesterday) and is ahead of us by half a game.


Yes, but behind us in this particular playoff odds chart. That's where the RS/RA ratio comes in; this method figures the Mets to win more from here on out than the Nats because our run differential is considerably better.

Elster88
Sep 05 2005 04:12 PM

Another two run effort by the Metsies.
_____________________________
This post was under the designation 164) Keith Miller

Frayed Knot
Sep 06 2005 11:48 AM

The results of Monday's games drops us to: 1.63% (division) + 10.44% (WC) = 12.07% shot of the playoffs.

Also the Cards become the first team to hit the 100% mark; they're listed at 99.9991% to win their division and have the remaining 0.0009% chance at the WC if they happen to collapse in the Central.

old original jb
Sep 06 2005 03:18 PM

I'm satisfied that management has delivered what was promised: the new Mets are losing meaningful games in September.

Willets Point
Sep 06 2005 04:54 PM

I hate this thread.

Frayed Knot
Sep 07 2005 11:42 AM

Well you're gonna hate it even more now:

Including Tuesday's games:
Division = .712%
Wild Card = 7.801%
Total = 8.513%

old original jb
Sep 08 2005 09:10 AM
And not just losing meaningful games in September

Whole series, too!

Rockin' Doc
Sep 08 2005 12:59 PM

Division = .712%
Wild Card = 7.801%
Total = 8.513%


That's being generous if you ask me. I would personally set the odds sigificantly lower.

Rockin' Doc's odds on the Mets making the playoffs in 2005:*
Division = When Atlanta freezes over.
Wild Card = When hell freezes over.

*I know, the two are pretty much interchangeable.

MFS62
Sep 08 2005 01:33 PM

What's the over/ under date for when we'll be off the board?

My guess is September 29th. That will be a nice friggin' birthday present for me.

Later

Rotblatt
Sep 08 2005 01:55 PM

I'll bite the bullet here.

Updated odds:

0.23518 for division
4.91281 for WC
5.14800 for Playoffs overall.

Astros are the heavy favorites at 54.66%, with the Fish behind at 20.39107%

We're still ahead of the Nats despite their 1.5 game advantage.

After glancing at the BP Adjusted Standings Report, we are now 7 games below projections, officially making us the most unlucky team in the majors this season so far. The Braves are 6.1 games above projections.

Based on strength of schedule & run differential, we should be atop the NL East with a 77-62 record--2 games ahead of the Braves

Bizarre, isn't it?

Willets Point
Sep 08 2005 02:37 PM

On paper I'm 6' 7" with well-defined pecs and abs to die for and a body fat index in the single digits.

Real life sucks compared to the projections.

Edgy DC
Sep 08 2005 02:47 PM

You've also got a huge gun.

MFS62
Sep 08 2005 02:53 PM

That may be too much information.

Later

Willets Point
Sep 08 2005 03:07 PM

This will be funny when I change my avatar and you can no longer see Edgy's reference.

Elster88
Sep 08 2005 03:10 PM

I miss the days when you ejected toast.
_____________________________
This post had the designation 160) Kaz Matsui