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All-Purpose Bullpen 2005 Thread

Rotblatt
Sep 03 2005 10:38 PM

Stats (including LEV) for our 2005 bullpen.

]Leverage measures how important the situations a reliever has been used in. A leverage of 1.00 is the same importance as the start of a game. Leverage values below one represent situations that are less important than the start of a game (such as mopup innings in a blowout). Leverage values above one represent situations with more importance (such as a closer protecting a one-run lead with bases loaded in the 9th inning).

Mathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring (or allowing) one run at the start of the game.


only pitchers with more than 10 IP shown
















































































































Name IP LEV ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB HR/9
Braden Looper 54 1.73 3.33 1.37 4.17 1.39 1.17
Roberto Hernandez 57.3 1.57 2.67 1.24 8.48 2.35 0.62
Mike DeJean 25.7 1.01 6.31 2.10 5.96 0.94 1.05
Royce Ring 10.7 0.97 5.06 1.88 6.75 0.80 0
Juan Padilla 23.7 0.81 1.90 1.14 3.75 1.11 0
Dea-Sung Koo 23 0.79 3.91 1.52 9.00 1.76 0.78
Heath Bell 44.3 0.79 4.67 1.40 7.92 3.25 0.61
Aaron Heilman 49.7 0.64 2.72 1.15 10.15 4.00 0.18
Manny Aybar 25.3 0.43 6.04 1.50 9.59 3.86 1.42
Danny Graves 18.3 0.22 5.89 1.80 4.91 1.67 1.96

Heilman has been our best reliever. Far better than Looper, better even than Robo, and we've used him, on average, in incredibly low-level situations--lower-level than 7 other pitchers we've had or currently have on our team.

I think Heilman is example #1 of Willie's misuse of our pen. For some inexplicable reason, he trusted guys like DeJean, RIng & even the equally "unproven" Bell more than Heilman. Only Graves & Aybar have been used in lower-level situations than Heilman.

How many games has his misuse of Heilman cost us? I've no idea, but I suspect more than one. Swap Heilman's 49.7 innings at 2.72 ERA for DeJean & Ring's 36 IP and we save around 15 runs in relatively high-leverage runs for the season.

on edit: now in table form (hopefully) and includes K/9, K/BB & HR/9. Please note Heilman's dominance in every single major & minor stat.

Rotblatt
Sep 04 2005 10:02 AM

Just to expand a bit, we've used our best reliever in situations where giving up a run here or there doesn't matter, and far inferior pitchers (namely DeJean, Ring, Koo & Padilla--and Looper, really) in situations where giving up a run is more likely to cost us the game.

smg58
Sep 04 2005 11:20 AM

Randolph's unwillingness to show confidence in his younger guys goes well beyond the bullpen. Remember if Cameron had been healthy to start the season, Wright would have hit eighth. I don't like it either.

The thing is, there's enough upside there that the Mets could win next year with a supporting cast of Heilman, Padilla, Bell, Santiago, Hamulack, and Ring. They need the right guy on top, not guys who earned their demotions or unconditional releases from other teams to come in and block better players.

Frayed Knot
Sep 04 2005 01:29 PM

I suspect that some of Heilman's early appearences when he was essentially the long man may be skewing those results a bit. Coming in earlier in the game is almost automatically going to lower the "leverage" score.

Elster88
Sep 04 2005 01:35 PM

[url]http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?p=22066#22066[/url]
_____________________________
This post was under the designation 165) Jose Reyes

Edgy DC
Sep 04 2005 09:39 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 04 2005 10:21 PM

I don't think it's so much a lack of confidence in younger players, so much as a philosophical belief (and no, I'm not saying I share it) that slowly upgrading their role as they excel more is better for them over the long haul.

duan
Sep 04 2005 09:58 PM

well the thing is ERA is a terrible judge of a reliever's effectiveness [evidence No. 1 - Shinjo Takutsa still has a 0.00 era as a met]. As it takes no account of inherited runners saved or the support from the rest of the pen in terms of bequeathed runners scored.

It's better to look at this!

[url]http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=7837[/url]

which show that Bert is our best reliever (although Heillman's second) but MORE IMPORTANTLY that Bert's been the best man at getting other people out of jams - he's saved nearly 7 runs above average for other people![/url]

Edgy DC
Sep 04 2005 10:22 PM

Good point.

I don't think ERA should be dismissed so much as improved upon, starting with carefully charging partial runs to pitchers who share in allowing runs.

What the devil knocks Koo so off the chart there? Has his limited effectiveness been that limited to when he starts an inning?

Contrasting his ERA to the bad taste he left behind, I guess so.

Rotblatt
Sep 05 2005 12:04 AM

Interesting! Thanks for the info, duan! I hadn't looked at inherited runners at all, and you're right, that does make a pretty big difference.

Although my larger point about misusing Heilman still stands, I think . . .

smg58
Sep 05 2005 12:26 AM

From what I recall of Koo, he was very unsuccessful when brought in as a LOOGY, and that probably impacts the resuls significantly.

I don't even have a problem with being careful with younger guys if/when it's feasible; I have a problem with giving more responsibility to a veteran who's "proven" that he's not any good.

Edgy DC
Sep 05 2005 11:14 AM

Well then, I would argue that the veterans that have "proven" (also in quotes) such a thing largely have better leverage scores than emerging pitchers because they were released or DFA'd upon demonstration that they couldn't perform in high-leverage situations, rather than downgrading their leverage scores eating innings in the back end of the bullpen.

Danny Graves is a key exception, but I'm not seeing a bullpen regularly trotting out established failures with the game on the line. Yes many of us would rather have seen Heilman emerge earlier, but it's hard to argue that his role didn't improve as veterans demonstrated what they have or didn't have.

One can certainly argue that Matthews, DeJean, and Aybar should have never been entertained in the first place (though to throw out that bathwater, the baby that is Hernandez would have gone also), but that's a different argument.

Johnny Dickshot
Sep 05 2005 11:55 AM

It's a different argument but an important one. It wasn't clear at all when the season began that Hernandez would emerge the way he did: Aybar and Koo were brought in to pitch innings 7 and 8 on opening day (and Danny F. Graves got the save).

You're also right about the DFAs impacting the leverage scores.

Starting the year with vets on the staff then replacing them with youngins was done in part because it was easier than doing it the other way around and it managed to turn up Hernandez ... he wasn't established as the 8th-inning guy until May, and that was in part because he spent April effectively cleaning up after Aybar or Matthews. I think he provides some evidence that Willie/Omar were willing to learn.

Bret Sabermetric
Sep 05 2005 12:42 PM

Johnny Dickshot wrote:
some evidence that Willie/Omar were willing to learn.


Or some evidence of how hidebound and foolish they are. A competent person would have looked at young pitchers in a rebuilding year where they had a weak bullpen and figured out who looked promising and gone with them. But this was the problem with doing a rebuild at the same time you're publically committed to trying to contend--young guys LOOK like a give-up move so you embrace the retreads, who at least can give you a rationale (that sounds lame but lets you save face: "Hey Hernandez was terrific for the White Sox in the 1990s, we thought he could do it for us again." As it happened, Hernanedez did bounce back a bit, but most retreads just continue in free-fall.)

The advantage of going with a kiddy pen, certainly this year for the Mets, is (assuming you have some good players and the scouting acumen to ID them) is that you sometimes make real finds for your club's long-term interests.

Johnny Dickshot
Sep 05 2005 01:06 PM

]embrace the retreads


Matthews: released April 25
Aybar: released June 10
DeJean: Released June 20

Elster88
Sep 05 2005 04:22 PM

It still does kill me that people point to Mathews as poor decision-making by the Mets when the guy didn't make it to May.
_____________________________
This post was under the designation 164) Keith Miller

Rotblatt
Sep 05 2005 04:52 PM

The games we lost in April & May are just as important as the ones we're losing now. And we DID stick with DeJean way too long in high-leverage spots, and it DID hurt us.

Heilman has been completely undervalued by WIllie, and he remains so to this day. In the other thread, I posted his last 10 appearances, and of those, only 3 could be termed high-leverage.

So what, exactly, has WIllie learned? He trusts Padilla more than him, which is dumb, because as much as I like him, he hasn't been nearly as good, and he uses Heilman pretty much interchangably with Bell now, who hasn't been nearly the pitcher Heilman has.

Doesn't make sense.

I have no problem signing wash-ups and retreads if they have upside but if they demonstrate they're not worth a spot, they need to QUICKLY be dismissed.

Elster88
Sep 05 2005 05:07 PM

Rotblatt wrote:
The games we lost in April & May are just as important as the ones we're losing now. And we DID stick with DeJean way too long in high-leverage spots, and it DID hurt us.

Heilman has been completely undervalued by WIllie, and he remains so to this day. In the other thread, I posted his last 10 appearances, and of those, only 3 could be termed high-leverage.

So what, exactly, has WIllie learned? He trusts Padilla more than him, which is dumb, because as much as I like him, he hasn't been nearly as good, and he uses Heilman pretty much interchangably with Bell now, who hasn't been nearly the pitcher Heilman has.

Doesn't make sense.

I have no problem signing wash-ups and retreads if they have upside but if they demonstrate they're not worth a spot, they need to QUICKLY be dismissed.

Yes the games mean just as much in April and May. My point was that they kicked Matthews to the curb pretty quickly, and I'm not sure who looked better in ST out of the gate.

Regarding Heilman, I'm more of the opinion that he's getting overused.
_____________________________
This post was under the designation 164) Keith Miller

PatchyFogg
Sep 05 2005 10:11 PM

Here's a retread we can embrace:

http://www.98online.com/kml/pitcher.JPG

smg58
Sep 06 2005 12:08 PM

I'm afraid to ask, but where did you find that one? It's hilarious.

metirish
Sep 06 2005 12:30 PM

classic, I wonder what team will pay Ponson millions next season to pitch for them.