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Why Do We Suck Away From Home?

Rotblatt
Aug 22 2005 03:16 PM

Given that we're about 5 wins below pythagorean projections AND we suck away from home, I decided to see if we've just been getting unlucky in away games or if something else is going on, and if so, what.

Offense Away

We've had 58 Away Games, in which we've scored 256 runs, which equals 4.41 runs scored per game. That's good for 7th in the league in Away games. We're 10th in BAA (.254), 13th in OBPA (.313), tied for 6th in SLGA (.413) & 8th in OPSA (.726).

Home Offense

We've had 65 Home games, in which we've scored 303 runs, which equals 4.66 runs per game, good for 6th in league. We're 9th in BAH (.267), 9th in OBPH (.333), 10th in SLGH (413) & 10th in OPSH (.747).

So overall, we score .25 more runs per game at home and the biggest difference is that we get on base more there. For the most part, however, our offense hasn't been terrible either at home or away, but neither has it been particularly good.

Pitching

507 RA overall
468 ERA overall
39 UER

Unfortunately, I couldn't find a breakdown of total runs allowed at home versus away, just the number of earned runs, so I took the 39 UER we gave up this season and allocated them evenly to home games and away games based on percentage of games played. If anyone knows where to find out where those UER should be allocated to, please let me know, because it WILL affect the results.

Away Pitching

240 ERA Away
18 UER
4.45 R/G (would be good for 7th in NL if this were our net average)

Home Pitching
228 ERA at Home
21 UER
3.83 RA/G (would be best in NL if this were our net average)

Our pitching has been superb at home and away, but when we're at Shea, we're the best in the league. Pretty clearly, we DESERVE to have a great H record based on how well our pitchers do there, but what about our A record?

Net Results

H: 249 RA, 303 RS = .597 W% = 39 W (actual = 40)
A: 258 RA, 256 RS = .500 W% = 29 W (actual = 23)

So there you have it, people. We've scored and prevented runs at a decent clip away from home, we've just gotten unlucky. At home, meanwhile, we've gotten a bit lucky to the tune of one extra win (.7, actually, but I rounded up).

This kind of blows my "It's Willie's fault" theory, since he's been pretty consistent between H & A games in terms of bullpen mismanagement . . .

Anyway, there doesn't seem to be any obvious problem that comes out when we play away from home. Unless, of course, the allocation of unearned runs is off . . .

G-Fafif
Aug 22 2005 06:02 PM

I offer a theory here:

[url]http://mets2005.myblogsite.com/blog/_archives/2005/8/22/1160565.html[/url]

Rotblatt
Aug 22 2005 07:53 PM

That's pretty goddamn hilarious, G.

Come game time, I will be out my window, cursing the Mets with all the gusto I can muster. And if a neighbor calls the cops on me, I'll just have to hope the cops are Mets fans as well . . .

Thanks for the entertaining read